Georgia vs. Mississippi State NCAAF Week 11 Picks: Is This a Trap Game?

Stetson Bennett Georgia Bulldogs Tennessee Volunteers
Stetson Bennett #13 of the Georgia Bulldogs celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP.

The Georgia Bulldogs have looked like the best team in college football for the vast majority of this season, and a win against the Tennessee Volunteers put them in the driver’s seat of the SEC East and the College Football Playoff hunt. It seems that they can only beat themselves at this point. Will that happen this weekend?

Georgia has dominated against tough rivals in pivotal games, but the Bulldogs have also played poorly against inferior opponents. Both the Missouri Tigers and Kent State kept things close until the final quarter. So, could we see another down performance after such an emotional win last weekend?

Mississippi State has one of the best offensive minds in college football, and the Bulldogs are also coming off of an emotional win last weekend. Can the home team prevail? Let’s break down the key stats of this game and make an NCAAF pick against the spread for this SEC football matchup.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Davis Wade Stadium

Georgia’s Flying High

Georgia lost almost every key contributor on defense this offseason, but the Bulldogs look just as dominant. The secondary is clamping down opposing receivers, and the defensive front does not need blitzes to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

The Bulldogs have more power on offense compared to last year thanks to Stetson Bennett’s efficiency under center. This team has limited turnovers, and Brock Bowers looks like the best tight end in college football.

The run game is balanced despite losing both key backs from last year’s team, and this team somehow find a way to replace George Pickens while keeping things consistent on offense. Combine that with the fact that this team has dominated against teams like Oregon, Florida and Tennessee, and you have a truly mindboggling program in Athens.

Needless to say, the Bulldogs are on the rise.

Starkville’s Solution at QB

The good news for Mississippi State is that Will Rogers appears to be the answer at quarterback. This team relies heavily on the passing game, and Rogers has remained efficient despite the lack of diversity to this offense.

Rogers is not a Heisman candidate, but he is easily playing well enough to keep this team competitive against most opponents.

Against the Bulldogs, Rogers will have to play his best game. No one has created the blueprint for beating Georgia, but it has to include some explosive plays on offense. This team won’t be able to do that on the ground, so look for them to win through the air.

Keys to Covering the Spread

Georgia Bulldogs

For Georgia to cover, they must lock down on the outside. No one expects the run game to be a factor, so you have to make Rogers go through his progressions and hope that he gets sacked before he finds the open receiver.

You need to get pressure without blitzing, though, because it is so valuable to have extra defenders in coverage against this offense.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

For Mississippi State, surprise runs will add value to your offense. Still, your only hope is to remain efficient.

This means staying ahead of the sticks and avoiding turnovers. You’ll need a few explosive plays, but you can’t expect to win solely on those.

Now that we know what each team needs to do, let’s predict what will happen.

Georgia vs. Mississippi State: Picks and Prediction

While Mississippi State has looked solid this year and Georgia is coming off of a massive game, I don’t see Mississippi State pulling off an upset. It would be the biggest upset of the season. Still, can they cover the spread established by the best sportsbooks?

Even with this being a night game, I don’t see Mississippi State keeping this close for four quarters. I like Georgia’s offense to be too much for MSU to stop. The run game will wear them down, and Bennett will find Brock Bowers early and often in the passing game.

Georgia has been an easy Under bet all year because of the defense. This will be no different. They dictate how games go, and they like them to stay low-scoring.

NCAAF Pick: Georgia -16.5 (-110) at BetMGM

NCAAF Pick: Under 53.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook