Free NCAAF Pick: UNC at Miami

Two contenders for this season’s ACC Coastal Division title square off this Saturday when the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Miami Hurricanes butt heads at Sun Life Stadium. Game time is set for 12:30 p.m., and this conference clash will be available on ESPN3.

North Carolina is coming off a big 28-27 upset of Virginia this past Saturday as a seven-point road underdog. The Tar Heels has now covered against the spread in their last three games. The total stayed “under” the 60-point closing line against the Cavaliers after going “over” in four of the Tar Heels last five games.

The Hurricanes have won three of their last four games both straight up and ATS, including a 30-6 romp over Virginia Tech last Thursday as 2.5-point road favorites. The total stayed under the closing 47.5-point line in that game, and it has now stayed under in three of their last four contests.

North Carolina at Miami Betting Storylines

The Tar Heels’ back-to-back victories over Georgia Tech and Virginia have them in the thick of the division title race at 2-2 in conference play. They scored a total of 76 points in those two games, and on the season this offense is averaging 37.4 points a game, which is ranked 20th in the nation. The problem has been a very inconsistent defense that is allowing an average of 41.3 points, which is ranked near the bottom of Division IA.

Marquise Williams has been the driving force behind the Tar Heels’ potent offensive attack. The versatile quarterback has thrown for 2,025 yards and 17 touchdowns while completing 63.3 percent of his 270 attempts. He also leads the team in rushing with 497 yards on 108 attempts while tallying five scores with his legs. Against the Yellow Jackets two weeks ago, he threw for 390 yards and four touchdowns in a wild 48-43 last-second win.

Miami has relied on a balanced attack to average 31.3 points a game. The offense is averaging 242.4 yards through the air, and the ground game is adding another 187.4 yards a game. Brad Kaaya has also done a good job under center with 1,898 passing yards and 17 touchdown throws with completion rate of 61.6 percent. Duke Johnson has already rushed for 1,036 yards and seven scores on 139 carries.

The Hurricanes’ defense has helped the cause by holding opponents to an average of 22.1 points a game. However, this unit did give up 28 points to Georgia Tech in an early October loss and 34 points the following week in a win over Cincinnati. This could be some cause for concern against the Tar Heels this Saturday afternoon.

North Carolina at Miami Betting Odds and Trends
Pointspread: Miami -12
Total Line: OFF

Betting trends have the Tar Heels going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games. The total has gone “over” in four of their last five road games.

The Hurricanes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games but just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against a conference foe. The total has stayed under in their last four ACC games.

Head-to-head in this Coastal Division clash, the road team has won four of the last six meetings SU, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests. The total has stayed under in three of the last four games.

College Football Picks: North Carolina at Miami Betting Predictions

I like Miami’s chances to get the SU win in this matchup, but covering a higher-than-expected 12-point spread will be a major challenge. The Hurricanes’ defense has already proven it can be scored upon, and the Tar Heels have had little problem lighting up the scoreboard this year. Take North Carolina and the points in what should be a very entertaining, high-scoring affair.

Take: # 327 North Carolina (+12) over Miami- 12:30 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 1

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