Both of these teams are 20+ win teams so this line seems like it is a little bigger than it should be. This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boise State when they have covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, and they are playing only their 3rd game in a week. This system is 59-30 (66.3%) over the last 5 seasons.
You should also play on a road team like Boise State when they are a good offensive team scoring 74-78 points per game against a defensive team allowing 63-67 points per game, after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. This system is 58-35 (62.4%) over the last 5 seasons.
UNLV is 7-9 ATS so it seems their 15-1 home record is getting them a little too much credit with the oddsmakers. Boise State is a good team that is 7-5 ATS on the road. Their high powered offense should be able to keep this game close on the road in what should be a very good game.
Play on Boise State +8
