Free NBA pick: Spurs at Grizzlies

This is going to be a great game and should have a playoff atmosphere. But we do think this line is off tonight and that the Spurs are the public play. When the Spurs are a public play, you know their opponent must be under the radar. And that is the Grizzlies.

The Grizz don’t have a lot of big names. They are not flashy. They win with defense and they very rarely score in the 100s. That is why this team is largely ignored by the public. And that is the main reason they are the top ATS team in the NBA right now at 20-12-1 ATS.

The Spurs are right up there amongst the Top 5 ATS teams as well, but this team has not been playing up to is normal levels lately. They have lost their last two road games, and they have covered in only one of their last four. And after an OT win in San Antonio late last year, we think Memphis will be primed for revenge tonight.

If the Spurs have a weakness, it is on the road, where they are 13-8 this season. While that road record is nothing to sneeze at, it does show weakness compared to their sterling 15-2 record at home. They have not been dogged many times this season, but they are 1-2 ATS when they have been an underdog. They have also had a much easier schedule than Memphis and they are only 9-8 ATS against above-.500 teams and only 4-4 ATS on the road against these teams.

Compare that to Memphis, who is 12-5 ATS against above-.500 teams, including 7-2 ATS at home, and the pick here tonight becomes very clear. Also, the Grizzlies are 11-2 as a favorite of less than 7 points this season, so they normally get the job done in games that are supposed to be tight.

#810 Take Memphis -1.5 over San Antonio

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