Free CFB Pick: Florida State vs. NC State

Florida State will look to remain the only unbeaten team in the ACC when the Seminoles tangle with the North Carolina State Wolfpack this Saturday night at Carter-Finley Stadium. The game is set to get underway at 8 p.m. ET and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.

The Seminoles moved to a perfect 5-0 straight up this past Saturday with a 30-17 victory over the Big East’s South Florida Bulls, but they could not cover the spread as 16.5-point favorites on the road. They are now just 1-3 against the spread this season and the total has gone “over” in two of the three games with posted line.

North Carolina State comes into this matchup with an overall record of 3-2 SU after coming up short against Miami (FLA) this past Saturday in a 44-37 loss as a two-point underdog on the road. The total went well over the 56-point line. The Wolfpack are 1-3-1 ATS this season with the total going 2-2.

Betting Storylines

So far, Florida State has been able to live up to all the hype that surrounded this team heading into this season. The high-powered offense, led by quarterback EJ Manuel, is ranked sixth in the nation in scoring with an average of 51 points a game. Manuel has thrown for 1,147 yards and nine touchdowns while completing an impressive 73.3 percent of his throws, but it is the Seminoles’ running game that has been consistently moving the chains. Chris Thompson leads the team in rushing with 431 yards on 49 carries, but they also have James Wilder Jr. helping the cause with 293 yards on the ground.

Complementing the offense is a defensive squad that is ranked seventh in the country in points allowed in giving up an average of just 11.4 points a game. The Seminoles have already pitched two shutouts but did give up 37 points to Clemson a couple of weeks back.

If NC State is going have any shot at keeping this game close, the Wolfpack will need big night from quarterback Mike Glennon. The 6-foot-6, 232 pound senior has already thrown for 1,422 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he has also been picked off six times. His favorite targets have been Quinton Payton and Tobais Palmer. These two have combined for 37 receptions for 611 yards but have only one score between them. Brian Underwood has just 12 catches on the year, but six have been for touchdowns.

While the Wolfpacks’ offense may be able to keep pace with the Seminoles on Saturday night, it remains to be seen how their defense will hold up. Against inferior competition earlier in the season NC State did a good job at shutting teams down, but there has to be some serious cause for concern after getting tagged for 44 points last week against the Hurricanes.

Betting Odds and Trends

Pointspread: Florida State -14
Total Line: OFF

The Seminoles are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win and 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall. The total has “under” in seven of its last nine games.

The Wolfpack are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss. The total has stayed under in five of their last seven games against the ACC.

Head-to-head, the Seminoles have won four of the last five meetings SU, but they are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Raleigh. The total has stayed under in four of the last five games between the two.

Betting Predictions

While the past trends are really stacked against Florida State covering the two-touchdown spread, most of those numbers reflect results for quite a few lean years for this team. The 2012 version of the Seminoles is the real deal and they will show everyone why with a dominating victory on Saturday night.

Take #337 Florida State (-14) over NC State

Leave a reply:

Your email address will not be published.