Free CFB Pick: Duke at UNC

The Duke Blue Devils will head down the road to Chapel Hill this Saturday to tangle with the North Carolina Tar Heels in a renewal of this heated in-state rivalry in the ACC. Kickoff from Kenan Stadium is set for 12:30 p.m. (ET), and the game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

For a school that is known primarily for its basketball team, Duke has fielded quite an impressive football team this season, and the Blue Devils come into this showdown at 9-2 both straight up and against the spread. They have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road, and the total has stayed “under” in three of those games.

North Carolina improved to 6-5 SU (7-4 ATS) with a ridiculous 80-20 victory over Old Dominion this past Saturday as a 17-point home favorite. The Tar Heels are 4-2 SU at home this season with a profitable 5-1 record ATS. The total has been evenly split in those six home games, but it has stayed under in seven of their 11 games overall.

Duke at North Carolina Betting Storylines

Duke has got it done this season behind a balanced attack on offense that is averaging 239.4 passing yards and 179.3 rushing yards per game. Anthony Boone has taken the majority of the snaps at quarterback, and he has thrown for 1,421 yards and eight touchdowns while completing 66 percent of his 203 attempts. Jela Duncan and Josh Snead have combined for 1,003 rushing yards this season on 172 carries. Snead has been especially effective on the ground with an average of 6.6 yards an attempt.

The Blue Devils are ranked 35th in the nation in scoring with an average of 34.3 points a game. They have put up 35 points or more in five of their last seven games, including 48 points against Miami two weeks ago in an 18-point win. The defense is ranked 36th in points allowed in giving up an average of 22.8 points a game.

The Tar Heels have struggled with consistency this season, especially in conference play. They lost to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech earlier in the season by a combined 18 points, but during their current five-game winning streak they have made short work of teams such as Boston College, NC State and Pittsburgh by an average margin of 15 points (this number does not include this past Saturday’s 60-point win).

The offense lost its starting quarterback, Bryn Renner, for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury, but Marquise Williams has done a good job in his place both throwing and running the ball. He has completed 90-of-148 attempts for 1,765 yards and 10 touchdowns while rushing for another 386 yards and four scores. The Tar Heels are averaging 32.8 points a game while allowing an average of 24.9 points on defense.

Duke at North Carolina Betting Odds and Trends

Pointspread: North Carolina -5
Total Line: OFF

The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. The total has gone “over” in three of those five games.

The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at home, and the total has gone over in eight of their last 11 home games.

Head-to-head in this ACC showdown, North Carolina has won eight of the last nine meetings SU overall and eight of the last nine games at home against Duke. The total has stayed under in four of the last five meetings in Chapel Hill.

College Football Picks: Duke at North Carolina Betting Predictions

A Duke victory would cap this magical ride with an ACC Coastal Division title and set up a showdown against No. 2 Florida State in the conference championship game. Last season the Blue Devils came away with a thrilling 33-30 victory over North Carolina as 10.5-point home underdogs, and this time around look for them to keep things close again to cover with the five points on the road.

Take: #353 Duke (+5) over North Carolina (12 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 30)

Leave a reply:

Your email address will not be published.