Dodgers vs. Padres MLB Preview and Odds Analysis

Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 16, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.   Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images/AFP
Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 16, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images/AFP


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres


Tuesday, June 22, 2021 – 10:10 pm ET at Petco Park


Probable Pitchers:


  • Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (8-6, 3.36 ERA)
  • Padres: Blake Snell (2-3, 5.72 ERA)


Stakes of the Matchup


Going into the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres were heavy favorites to win the NL West. After almost half of the season has been played, neither team is in first place even though both teams have the second and third best records in the National League.


This week, San Diego hosts Los Angeles in an important divisional series. On Monday, the Padres won the series opener. For Tuesday’s game, both teams have a nearly equal chance of winning according to the money line odds.


Not only do the Padres and Dodgers have similar records, but both teams are similarly built. Both LA and SD have strong lineups and strong starting pitchers. The Padres lineup averages 4.53 runs per game which is the 12th best in MLB while the Dodgers average 5.21 runs per game which is the second best in baseball.


While the LA averages more than .68 runs per game than San Diego, there is more parity between both lineups than it appears. That is because OF Cody Bellinger and 1B Max Muncy are out of the Dodgers lineup with injuries. Los Angeles’ lineup has been negatively affected by the absence of Bellinger a former NL MVP and Muncy who was a dark horse 2021 NL MVP contender.


However, even without Bellinger and Muncy, the Dodgers have been able to produce offensively. This weekend against Arizona, LA averaged 7 runs per game. Against a struggling pitcher in Blake Snell for the Padres, the Dodgers lineup could easily produce runs in Tuesday night’s game.


Pitching Matchup


For Tuesday night’s game, the Dodgers have an edge in starting pitching. Los Angeles is relying on veteran Clayton Kershaw who is off to another strong season. Opposing Kershaw is Blake Snell for the Padres who has been a disaster this season.


This season Kershaw has an 8-6 record with a 3.36 ERA, and a 2.92 xFIP. Additionally, Kershaw is averaging nearly six innings per start. In a league where the typical starting pitcher is only pitching for slightly more than five innings, Kershaw’s stamina and consistency is an asset. Typically, the Dodgers are heavily favored when Kershaw pitches, but they are only slightly favored against the San Diego Padres.


Opposing Kershaw is Blake Snell who is performing much differently than he did when he was with the Tampa Bay Rays. In 2020 with Tampa Bay, Snell had a 4-2 record with a 3.24 ERA. This season, Snell has a 2-3 record with a 5.72 ERA, and is averaging only around 4 1/3 innings per start. In the past Snell had been one of the best pitchers in the game, particularly in 2018 when he won the AL Cy Young. However, this season Snell has played much worse, and he could be in for a tough game against the Dodgers.




The Los Angeles Dodgers should win on Tuesday night against the Padres. Even without Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy, they are a better team. With Clayton Kershaw going against Blake Snell, the Dodgers at -109 are a bargain.


Snell has struggled recently has to keep runs off the scoreboard from the Dodgers. who have arguably one of the best lineups in the league. The Padres lineup is tough, but Clayton Kershaw should keep them in line. That is why I am not worried about my Dodgers bet.


MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-109) at DraftKings