The L.A. Dodgers and San Diego Padres have multiple holes in their rotations. Who will beat the MLB odds when they meet this Tuesday?
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 10:00 PM EDT at Petco Park
There’s only one right way to throw a baseball: sidearm, with your elbow tucked in. Everything else puts unnatural strain on your body, and the more you pitch, the sooner you’re going to break down. For example, check out the starting rotation for the Los Angeles Dodgers, where Clayton Kershaw (forearm), Dustin May (elbow), Danny Duffy (elbow), Tony Gonsolin (shoulder) and Cole Hamels (arm) are all on the injured list as we go to press. That’s not good, especially with Trevor Bauer still on administrative leave. The San Diego Padres haven’t escaped unscathed, either. Their list of missing starters includes Yu Darvish (back), Dinelson Lamet (forearm), Mike Clevinger (elbow), Chris Paddack (oblique) and Jake Arrieta (hamstring). Add it all up, and you’ve got two teams who are struggling to fill out their rotations for Tuesday’s matchup at Petco Park – even though both L.A. and San Diego were off Monday. Does either team belong in your MLB picks?
On The Fritz
Fortunately, I do have some overseas odds to work with at press time while we wait for our preferred sportsbooks to chime in. There’s at least some expectation that Julio Urias (3.37 FIP) will come off the 10-day IL for Los Angeles; manager Dave Roberts says that Urias is “trending” in the right direction, after sitting idle this past week with a contusion on his left calf. Ryan Weathers (5.49 FIP) is also in the mix for San Diego, leaving the Padres as +110 home dogs on the overseas MLB lines. If it does indeed turn out to be Urias vs. Weathers, the Dodgers are probably the sharper choice here. San Diego’s pitching has been problematic all year; coach Larry Rothschild was fired on Monday, replaced on an interim basis by bullpen coach Ben Fritz. As for Weathers, this is his first year in the bigs, and he’s down 4.94 betting units on a team record of 6-10. Urias, on the other hand, has the Dodgers at 18-6 for a healthy 3.42 units in profit.
San Diego Chicken Urias himself isn’t healthy, though. And because of that, you can make the argument that the Over is the better pick – although the total for Tuesday’s matchup has yet to be posted overseas. Urias has the Over at 16-7-1 thus far; Weathers has it at 9-7. Game time temperatures are expected to hover around the mid-70s, which should help the ball carry, although that classic West Coast humidity will counteract that somewhat – not to mention Petco Park itself, which sits near the bottom of the majors with a park factor of 0.884 for runs (as per ESPN). All told, the Dodgers and/or the Over look decent enough for this contest, but given Urias’ health, and the recent shake-up in San Diego’s coaching staff, I’m leaning slightly more towards the Over if the opening total is reasonable enough. Make it a small bet, though, and enjoy what should otherwise be an important rivalry game in the National League West race.
Pick: Over 9 (+100) with DraftKings