Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Divisional Round Picks and Odds Analysis

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs. David Eulitt/Getty Images/AFP

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs collide in a Sunday Night Football showdown that’s set to put a bow on the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. If this matchup lives up to its billing, it promises to be a raucous affair and a high-octane offensive shootout between two of the league’s most prolific quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. 

Bookmakers opened this game on a field goal line with Kansas City to the good. However, within hours of going to press, it dropped down to 2.5 points as early money came down the wire towards the Bills. By midweek, that trend seemingly continued and the line dropped down to 2 points with multiple outlets. Some sports betting sites have gone further and dropped the line down to Chiefs -1.5.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 23, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Bills Eye Second Win

The Buffalo Bills descended on the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 and roughed them up in a 38-20 win at Arrowhead Stadium to the stunned disbelief of a packed stadium of Chiefs fans. It was such a statement-making win that it prompted bookmakers everywhere to elevate the Bills to the top of their Super Bowl LVI markets. So, deeming it a fitting precursor of what was potentially to come in the playoffs. 

Alas, the Bills failed to back that win up and went on to lose to the Titans 34-31. In fact, the Bills went on to lose five of their ensuing eight games, including a head-scratching loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars that prompted markets to reassess Buffalo’s odds again. 

The final four weeks saw the Bills turn things around with a perfect 4-0 record. The timing of the turnaround couldn’t have been more perfect as it not only delivered the AFC East title, but it also sent them into the playoffs brimming with confidence. A fact that was evinced in last Sunday’s AFC Wild Card showdown that involved the total obliteration of the New England Patriots, 47-17. 

Allen was in sublime form, throwing five touchdowns in the dismantling of their arch-rivals at Orchard Park. Devin Singletary rushed for two scores and the Bills never once punted in the game. Allen finished with 21 of 25 passes (84%) for 308 yards, five touchdowns and six carries for 66 yards. 

Chiefs Steal The Show

The Kansas City Chiefs weren’t to be outdone, and a day after the Bills’ impressive performance over the Patriots, they too exploded in an offensive bonanza that left the Pittsburgh Steelers reeling at Arrowhead Stadium. All the talk before the game was about Ben Roethlisberger and the fact that it might be his last NFL game, but the Chiefs were merciless and showed the veteran little deference on the way to the 42-21 win. 

Patrick Mahomes matched Allen’s five-touchdown performance with one of his own, while Travis Kelce added another passing touchdown to cap the Chiefs’ tally at six.

Mahomes tossed for 404 yards in a 30-for-39 passing display Sunday. He spread the ball generously, connecting with five different receivers. Kelce’s cheeky trick play came in the fourth quarter, seemingly pouring more salt onto the Steelers’ wound.

NFL Predictions and Picks

The Bills might have beaten the Chiefs earlier this season, but they’ve yet to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. Nevertheless, the public is high on the Bills as they emerge as the early consensus betting pick. This trend has resulted in many top-rated sportsbooks dropping the line down significantly. 

It’s one thing to beat the Chiefs in a run-of-the-mill regular-season game. Another when the AFC Championship game is on the line. The Bills certainly looked good in their beatdown of the Patriots. Before that, their 4-0 finish down the stretch was encouraging, although they beat up on mostly inferior opponents such as the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets. 

It remains to be seen whether the Bills can back up their Wild Card performance or whether it was just the result of a mismatch against a rookie quarterback that was out of his depths. This wouldn’t be the first time the Bills flattered to deceive this season. That said, the value may be lost now with the Bills at +2.

For Kansas City bettors, the NFL line move is extremely advantageous and offers a value play that wasn’t there initially. To get the Chiefs at -2 or, even, -1.5 could be compared to stealing candy from the bookies.

Last season, the Chiefs sent the Bills packing in the AFC Championship game 38-24 at Arrowhead Stadium. Yes, the Chiefs haven’t been as dominant this season, but their experience in the playoffs gives them the advantage here. The Chiefs have made three straight AFC Championship games in a row. It’s all Kansas City knows in the Mahomes era.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-110) with BetMGM