Some interesting numbers in Saturday night’s title fight between WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas (8 p.m. PT, HBO PPV).
Pacquiao (53-3-2, 38 KOs) opened as a -700 favorite versus Marquez (53-5-1, 39KOs) in what will be the third meeting between the two fighters. The first bout in 2004 ended in a draw; Pacquiao won the second fight in 2008 by split decision.
Since the fight was first posted, the odds have shifted heavily towards the 32-year-old champion. The line on Pacquiao now ranges from -900 to as much as -1200 at some online sportsbooks listed in the Sports Options odds service.
Perhaps not surprisingly, those inflated odds have pushed betting action towards the 38-year-old challenger. According to the Sports Options odds service, 64 percent of public money is now on Marquez.
Marquez, the reigning lightweight WBA and WBO champion, is coming off a string of three straight victories, the last two of which were by TKO. The 5-foot-7 Mexican’s last loss was by unanimous decision to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2009.
Pacquiao, meanwhile, has not been beaten since 2005 when he lost by unanimous decision to Erik Morales. The 5-foot-6 Filipino has won 14 fights since then, including a 12-round unanimous decision victory over “Sugar” Shane Mosley in May.
The total for Saturday’s scheduled 12-rounder has been pegged at 10.5 rounds. The public is leaning towards the UNDER (58 percent), which stands to reason considering both fighters have a considerable number of knockouts on their resumes.
Looking at fight props offered by 5Dimes.com, the odds favor a Pacquiao win by way of knockout (odds as of Thursday, Nov. 10 at 2:15 p.m. PT):
Marquez by decision: +2083
Marquez by KO: +1222
Pacquiao by decision: +215
Pacquiao by KO: -170
No Draw: -6000