Betting Tips for NBA Team Total Wins

stephen curry warriors marcus smart celtics nba
Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors is defended by Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics. Adam Glanzman/Getty Images/AFP

Most NBA bettors are going to be a bit impatient. They want the NBA season to come back already but still have a couple of months to wait.

To pass some time, those same bettors are trying to find an edge in the NBA, going through all of the futures markets, trying to find quality bets.

One of the more popular markets in futures markets with sports betting is the team total wins section. You can bet on how many wins a team will have throughout the season. You’d either bet the over or the under of a certain number.

These bets can be profitable if you know what you’re doing. So let’s break it down.

Catch A Line Before a Big Trade

The Cleveland Cavaliers were +10000 to win the NBA Championship before the Donovan Mitchell trade. Now they’re +4000 in some spots, and their win total has increased with the addition of Mitchell.

Even as an NBA expert, I honestly didn’t see this coming. I thought that the Utah Jazz would eventually settle on New York’s best offer, and that would be that.

But we were all surprised, and Donovon Mitchell is now playing for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Imagine getting in on the Cavaliers’ win total before Mitchell’s trade was announced. It won’t happen like this all the time, but sometimes if you follow journalists you trust, you can find some really good value with teams that potentially will have a different roster before the season begins.

Consider Every Possibility

On the other side, what if the Jazz held onto Mitchell? You could’ve bet the over on the Jazz win total. This is exactly what happened in Brooklyn and why so many bettors got insane value with the Nets.

On day one of NBA Free Agency, it was reported that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant were seeking a trade and wanted to leave Brooklyn. Ultimately, those rumors were partially true, but Irving and Durant are still on the Nets.

The win total for the Nets was a lot less than it is now, knowing that Durant will be back with Irving. They’ll also have Ben Simmons, who will likely play a game this year.

When the Number Is Too High or Low

If you see a team with a number like 20 wins as their team total, it’s probably a good idea to take them over. Even the Orlando Magic finished with 22 wins last season, and the Detroit Pistons added 23 wins to their resume.

In the West, the Houston Rockets also reached the 20-win marker. The NBA looks more balanced this season compared to last year, but there will always be a couple of teams that underperform due to injuries.

If you’re looking at a team with an injury-prone player or two, taking the under would make sense.

Furthermore, if you’re looking at a team that has a player that refuses to sit, taking the over could be the better direction to go.

Bets to Consider in 2022

San Antonio Spurs

Will the San Antonio Spurs have the worst record in the NBA this year with Gregg Popovich as head coach?

Dejuante Murray won’t be around anymore, and the roster is pretty deflating, but I couldn’t imagine the Spurs ending up with the worst record in basketball this year.

The Spurs won 34 games last year and played in a play-in game. They’ll be competitive enough to reach 23 wins, I’d think.

Oklahoma City Thunder

However, the Thunder, for example, will be without Chet Holmgren. Their team total dropped to 23.5, exactly what they did last year. The Thunder ended up with 24 wins with their roster.

Without Holmgren, the Thunder could end up with another brutal season to pick up another massive asset.

Boston Celtics

But on the flip side, the Boston Celtics closed out the second half of the season extremely well. They’ve got a team total of 54.5 but only won 51 games last year.

Danillo Gallinari won’t be able to start the season for Boston, and let’s face it, Boston struggled early last year. A lot of teams will go through some struggles.

It’s hard to win games in the NBA, yet, the Celtics are expected to earn 54.5 wins. It seems like too much, despite all the additions they made.

The East also seems very competitive, hurting everyone’s total if the playing field is more balanced. These are just some things to think about before placing your team total wins bets before the season begins.