Superbowl LV isn’t just the biggest game of the year, it’s the best game for prop betting with 500+ markets available at some books, I pick out a few of my favorites.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, February 07, 2021 – 06:30 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium
Anytime TD Scorer
The most popular of prop bets at the best bookmakers will always be trying to find some value in the TD scorer market, with this being a single game, the last of the season value is always going to be tough to find. Everyone knows who’s likely to find the endzone so the prices are generally short; Hill and Kelce are both odds-on, they had most of the passing work and both got in against the Bills. It’s always worth looking around on TD scorer prices, Unibet are generally better priced on rare scorers than anywhere else and they’ve got a few at +2200 as usual. But the price discrepancy on Patrick Mahomes makes me want to take him over there, he’s +187 on Bet365, but +250 on Unibet. He scored the first of the game in the Superbowl last year, and found the endzone in the playoffs against the Browns, I fancy him to do the same here.
Patrick Mahomes anytime TD +250 with Unibet.
These tend to fluctuate around the books as well, so if you’ve got a specific player you like the over or under on then make sure you get the best line, it’s usually only a yard or two but that could be the key. For this game I don’t want to take any of the Chiefs rushers, they’re facing the #1 run defense and I’m unsure of workload. I don’t mind o34.5 rush yards on Ronald Jones (it’s 37.5 at unibet) I think he gets more work this week. The Chiefs passing game is always tough to judge as well, I’d rather target o/u receptions on that side of the ball. The Bucs passing game isn’t much easier to pick. I assume Antonio Brown is back, so that muddles it further, if you fancy Ronald Jones to have a reception his receiving line is set at 1.5 (-120) that’s better than the o0.5 reception at -160 so you’d think one catch will beat that line.
Ronald Jones o34.5 rush yards at -120 with Bet365
Longest Field Goal
The main props will be the TD scorer and yardage props, then there’s a host of weirder offerings. The common adage is that you don’t beat the Chiefs with Field goals, and the Bills proved that when settling for 3 at the end of the first half and ruining any momentum or pressure they were putting on the Chiefs last time they played. The Superbowl is the most pressure any team will be under and these two coaches will be aggressive. The line is o/u 47.5 on Bet365 and I like the under. Succop for the Bucs is 1-2 from 50+ this year, and only has two converted field goals over the 47.5 line, while Butker is 5-5 from 50+, last years Superbowl saw a long of 42, Butker kicked one FG from 31.
Longest Field goal – Under 47.5 yards at -120 with Bet365
Total Rush Yards in Game
This is an interesting market, I’ve seen reports of it opening at Chiefs +14.5 in the states, while it was on WilliamHill at Bucs +10.5 earlier in the week. It’s now set as a scratch at William Hill which I still think is value on the Bucs. They have the best ranked rush defense in the league which was improved with Vita Vea returning last week, and the Chiefs unit of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams hasn’t really been effective all year. The Bucs have “playoff Lenny” Fournette putting up numbers each week of the post-season and Ronald Jones another week healthier and back in the good graces of management, against the Chiefs bottom 5 ranked rush defense. My only worry is game-script, but I think the Bucs have more yards on the ground.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers most rushing yards at -110 with WilliamHill