Auburn vs. Texas A&M College Football Week 10 Picks and Odds Analysis

Bo Nix #10 of the Auburn Tigers rolls out of the pocket. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

This SEC matchup might not have championship implications, but other factors are at stake for both Auburn and Texas A&M. Who is best suited to take advantage of the moment?

Auburn, with its compelling victory over Mississippi, keeps itself in contention for the SEC West and they are hoping to still have one loss in conference when hosting Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

Texas A&M has two conference setbacks, but one of their conference triumphs is over Alabama and a victory keeps one big hope alive.

Because neither team figures to actually win SEC, though the Tigers still have a chance, the victor in this battle will have the inside track if they finish 10-2 for a Super Six bowl bid.

The betting odds at top sportsbooks have the Aggies favored by 4.5 points with the total at 50 for this big afternoon skirmish. What side should you be on?

Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, November 6, 3:30 PM EDT at Kyle Field

Bo Nix Living Up to Reputation for Auburn

Maybe it’s maturity or maybe Bo Nix just needed to be in an offense that is better suited for his talents. Nix is a junior and is thriving in first-year coach Bryan Harsin’s offense, compared to his up and down tendencies under the previous coach Gus Malzahn.

Malzahn’s offense was more complicated and when things got off-kilter in a game, they stayed that way for Nix. That’s not been the case under Harsin, where Nix is not as mechanical and now trusts himself more.

Auburn’s offense is nicely balanced and is 27th in yards gained at over 450 yards a contest.

The Tigers’ defense is like the old McDonald’s McDLT, it is hot and cold, able to string together a number of short drives allowed and then burned for 80 yards on three plays.  This defense can be overwhelmed at the point of attack. What they can do to stop Texas A&M is hit the gaps hard to be disruptive.

Bo Nix #10 of the Auburn Tigers warms up. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

Rested Texas A&M Ready For Final Push

This is the Aggies’ last SEC home game and it comes after a bye week. Based on quarterback play, Jimbo Fisher’s squad was likely somewhat overrated coming into the year with Haynes King and Zach Calzada.

Calzada blossomed in the upset of the Crimson Tide in throwing for 285 yards. That was an outlier effort, as the offensive line has improved their drive blocking and Fisher emphasizing the run and mixing in the pass. The Aggies offense will rely on the defense to set up better field position, as they will look to score on shorter fields.

The Texas A&M defense was going to be among the best in the country. That has not worked out as planned as Alabama and Arkansas had their way with the Aggies stop troops, yet, they are still 6th in points allowed.

They will have to muscle up against Auburn’s O-Line and be alert when Nix looks to throw the ball down the field.

Who Takes This SEC Showdown?

Though our power ratings support the sportsbooks odds in this matchup, we would be remiss to discount Auburn is 4-0 and 3-0-1 ATS at College Station.

For college football picks, we find the visitor in this series is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS and has four outright upsets. If you consider this, that suggests the Tigers won’t be affected by the noise and have poise when it counts, and since they are averaging less than a turnover a contest, getting better than a field goal offers value.

Texas A&M has an edge on the defensive side, with Auburn having more punch and diversity on offense along with the better quarterback.

In truth, if it weren’t for the Aggies 9-2 ATS off a home win against a conference rival, we’d consider a money line play on Auburn, thus, we will just take the points.

College Football Pick: Auburn +4.5 (-110) at bet365