Arsenal vs. Newcastle: Premier League Betting Preview

Arsenal’ Spanish midfielder Dani Ceballos (L) Aris Messinis/ AFP

Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC 

Saturday, November 27, 2021 – 07:30 AM EST at Emirates Stadium 

Arsenal will bid to return to winning ways when it hosts Newcastle at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. The Gunners were surging with momentum before the recent international break. They picked up six wins and two draws from eight games, which saw them soar up the Premier League table. 

However, the two-week international break derailed that momentum somewhat, and Arsenal suffered a damaging 4-0 defeat to Liverpool last weekend. Yet it remains fifth in the standings, and it could reignite its push for a top-four finish by beating the Magpies this weekend. 

Arsenal Dominates Head-to-Heads 

Arsenal has won its last seven games against Newcastle. Going further back, it has won 17 of its last 18 games against the Magpies. The Gunners have not conceded a single goal in their last six clashes with Newcastle, and they have banged in 14 goals in that time. 

That record should give Arsenal confidence as it prepares for this clash. Mikel Arteta’s men have the third-best home record in the Premier League this season, with four wins, one draw, and one defeat from six games. That one defeat came against league leader Chelsea way back in August when Arsenal was missing both of its center-backs, both of its senior strikers, and several other key players. 

Newcastle is Bottom of the League 

Newcastle is now the richest club in the world following last month’s takeover by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund. However, the new owners cannot start splashing the cash until January, when the transfer window opens.

They did fire struggling manager Steve Bruce, but replacement Eddie Howe is still stuck with the same technically limited group of players. Newcastle suffered from a chronic lack of investment during Mike Ashley’s ownership, and the current squad is threadbare. 

The Magpies sit bottom of the Premier League, with zero wins, six draws, and six defeats from 12 games. They played well during Howe’s first game in charge last weekend, but they still had to come from behind twice to scrape a 3-3 draw. Despite the poor results, Newcastle has been an entertaining team to watch this year. It played very cautious football under Rafa Benitez, but Bruce threw caution to the wind.

Newcastle has not kept a single clean sheet so far this season, and it has the joint-worst defensive record in the Premier League – conceding 2.25 goals per game on average – but it has scored in 10 of its 12 matches. It actually has a better goalscoring record than eight other teams, including Arsenal. 

Howe is not a particularly pragmatic coach, as illustrated by Newcastle’s gung-ho approach in the 3-3 draw with Brentford, and the Magpies should continue to take lots of risks. 

Team News 

Newcastle does not have any notable injury concerns, with only Paul Dummett and Fabian Schar still out. 

Arteta also has a reasonably clean bill of health. Granit Xhaka has not yet returned from a long-term injury, but Kieran Tierney should be back to reclaim his place on the left side of the defense, and there are no other injury concerns. 

Betting Picks 

Arsenal is best priced at just -200 to win this game. That is understandable, as it looks vastly superior to Newcastle and it has a strong home record. 

You can get more value by combining Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals. That is priced at -105 with FanDuel and +100 with Bet365. 

Newcastle games have seen an average of 3.5 goals this season, and Arsenal games average 2.5. Arsenal’s home games average 2.67 goals, as do Newcastle away games. It could be tight, but over 2.5 goals look likely. Arsenal and over 1.5 goals would be a more cautious approach, or perhaps Arsenal and under 4.5 goals. 

Another option could be Arsenal -1.25 Asian handicap at +100. The Gunners have covered that line in their last four games against Newcastle, and they should be keen to make amends for last weekend’s defeat.