2023 NFL Draft Odds: 3 Best Bets to Make for the First Round

Linebacker Will Anderson Alabama NFL Combine
Linebacker Will Anderson of Alabama speaks to the media during the NFL Combine. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP.

Picks Summary

• Will Anderson First Defensive Player Drafted (-240) at Bet365

• Dalton Kincaid First Tight End Drafted (+125) at Bet365

• Chicago Bears to Draft Jahmyr Gibbs (+2500) at Bet365

The NFL Draft is a week away, and we are still surrounded by chaos and uncertainty. At this point, bettors usually have a solid expectation for at least the first five picks. This year, there is still a debate about the first selection, and rumors are swirling that the Texans could shock the world with the second pick.

With multiple franchise quarterback candidates and potential trade partners, we have no idea what to expect. However, a correct assumption could lead to a nice payday for your NFL Draft betting.

Based on intel, logic, and analysis of team needs, these are the three best bets for you to make. We’ll have one solid bet along with a couple of value picks.

First Defensive Player Drafted

Will Anderson (-240)

As a general rule, I don’t like to make picks with negative value during the draft simply because of the chaos that can take place. Still, this value is better than you would think given the rumors swirling.

Anderson is one of the favorites to go second overall at this point, and it is easy to see why. He was one of the most productive edge rushers in college football for three years. He’s a two-time captain for the Alabama Crimson Tide. He never takes a play off, and you don’t have to worry about him off the field.

This man has always seen production. Here are his year-by-year stats:

• 7 sacks as a freshman

• 17.5 sacks as a sophomore

• 10 sacks as a junior

Every team knew he was the best player on the field, and he still hit double-digit sacks as a junior. He even got an interception and scored a touchdown for the Tide, so he has playmaking skills outside of rushing the passer.

In a draft with few known truths, you can rest assured that Will Anderson is going to be worth an early pick. Pairing this with the value of his position, and he’s a lock to be the first non-quarterback drafted.

NFL Draft Pick: Will Anderson First Defensive Player Drafted (-240) at Bet365

First Tight End Drafted

Dalton Kincaid (+125)

There has been a hot debate regarding who the best tight end is this year. While many believe the all-around talent of Michael Mayer is what matters, it is worth mentioning that tight ends with exquisite abilities as a receiver tend to go higher every single year.

That’s why I like the value of Kincaid. Mayer does more with his versatility and blocking, but Kincaid is seen as the best receiver in this tight end class. With that kind of value, he could join almost any team and perform as a rookie.

Tight ends drafted in the first round rarely live up to the hype, but the ones that have been worth it are excellent receivers. With teams like the Packers and Cowboys needing tight ends, it’s easy to predict at least one will be taken in the first round. In my opinion, you should take a receiving tight end first and look for blocking tight ends later in the draft.

I still see Mayer as the better prospect as a whole, but the upside of Kincaid makes him a value pick with positive odds.

NFL Draft Pick: Dalton Kincaid First Tight End Drafted (+125) at Bet365

Team to Draft Player

Chicago Bears to Draft Jahmyr Gibbs

Okay, this one might be a stretch. However, the value of this pick is amazing. The Bears have 10 picks in this year’s draft. Even with a team that has a lot of needs, it’s not likely to have 10 drafted rookies on your roster. That means that they could trade up in later rounds to pick the players they value.

This team likes to run the ball with Justin Fields, and David Montgomery is no longer on the team. They absolutely need to take a running back in this draft, and I love the idea of trading up in the second round for Gibbs.

Gibbs is one of the fastest players in this class, and he’s an electric receiver. He’s not as strong between the tackles, but he can make big plays as a rusher and receiver. He’d easily take the pressure off of Fields to produce as a runner, and he would be an outlet in the passing game for a team desperate to get a trusted receiver.

The Bears do have higher needs, but they also have plenty of picks. They can address the offensive line in the first round and take a receiver in round 2. If they trade up for Gibbs as well, they’ll have an offense ready to contend in the division.

NFL Draft Pick: Chicago Bears to Draft Jahmyr Gibbs (+2500) at Bet365