Yankees favored over Tigers in ALDS

Most sports books monitored by the SportsOptions odds product have installed the New York Yankees as $1.45 favorites in their best-of-five American League Division Series against the Detroit Tigers.

Friday night’s opening game finds the Yankees as $1.30 home favorites, with CC Sabathia getting the starting nod against Detroit’s Justin Verlander. The total opened at seven ‘over’ (minus $1.20).

A comparison of the two teams appears below.

Season series: Detroit 4-3

The Tigers opened the 2011 campaign by dropping two of three to New York at Yankee Stadium. The first two meetings saw the Yanks register victories of 6-3 and 10-6, with both going ‘over’ the closing totals of eight and 9 ½ respectively.

The opening game saw Sabathia defeat Verlander as a $1.45 home favorite. Sabathia limited the Tigers to two earned runs on six hits through six innings. The portly southpaw walked two and fanned seven in a 106-pitch effort.

Verlander was touched for three runs on just three hits through six innings, but two of the hits were home runs by Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. The flame-throwing right-hander walked four and fanned eight en route to throwing 114 pitches.

Detroit managed a 10-7 victory in the series finale as a $1.50 road underdog, with the combined 17 runs again soaring ‘over’ the 9 ½-run closing total.

The two squads met again in May for a four-game series at Detroit, with the Tigers suffering a 5-3 loss the first game before registering wins of 4-2, 4-0 and 6-3 in the final three matchups. The ‘under’ was 2-0-2 in those four meetings.

Detroit’s lone loss in that series occurred with Verlander on the mound as a $1.35 home favorite against New York’s Bartolo Colon. Verlander allowed three runs on eight hits through six innings spanning a whopping 127 pitches. He walked four and fanned eight.

Sabathia was on the mound for the 4-2 loss and closed as a $1.65 road favorite against Brad Penny. The Tigers touched Sabathia for all four runs and 10 hits through seven innings. He walked three and fanned six.

Statistical comparison

Home record: NYY 52-29, DET 50-31
Road record: NYY 45-36, DET 45-36
Versus RHP : NYY 62-48, DET 64-47
Versus LHP : NYY 35-17, DET 31-20
One-run game NYY 21-24, DET 29-17
Extra inning NYY 4-12, DET 6-3
Runs scored NYY 867, DET 787
Runs allowed NYY 657 DET 711

Fast facts

Detroit finished the regular season on a four-game winning streak, while the Yankees dropped their last four regular season contests.

The Tigers were 50-22 against teams in their own AL Central Division, but just 45-45 against everyone else.

Offense

Batting average: NYY .263 (7th), DET .277 (3rd)
Home runs : NYY 222 (1st), DET 162 (11th)
Runs batted in : NYY 836 (2nd), DET 750 (4th)
Stolen bases : NYY 147 (4th), DET 49 (last)

Defense

Fielding %: NYY .983 (15th), DET .983 (17th)
Errors : NYY 102, DET 103

Pitching

ERA : NYY 3.73 (11th), DET 4.04 (18th)
Saves : NYY 47 (T-6th) DET 52 (T-2nd)
WHIP : Both teams 1.32, tied for 18th
Batting AA: NYY .256 (16th), DET .257 (18th)

Betting trends

The Yankees are 37-15 in their last 52 home games against the Tigers and 9-2-3 in their last 14 overall outings as a favorite. The Tigers are 12-4 in their last 16 road encounters and 5-1 in their last six playoff games as an underdog. Detroit is also 20-7 in its last 27 contests against teams with a winning record.

The Tigers are 16-5 in Verlander’s last 21 road starts, but are 1-6 in his last seven starts as a road underdog.

The Yankees are 6-0 in their last six divisional playoff games and 7-3 in their last 10 opening games of a series. The Yankees are 43-15 in Sabathia’s last 58 starts as a favorite, 23-6 in Sabatthia’s last 29 starts in Game 1 of a series and 36-15 in Sabathia’s last 51 overall home starts.

The ‘under is 8-2-1 in Verlander’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The ‘over’ is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Yankees and Tigers in New York. The Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander’s last five starts against the Yankees in New York.

Prediction

Yankees win series, 3-1.

Odds to win the 2011 World Series, courtesy of Cantor Gaming, appear below.

Team Odds
Phillies 7/5
Yankees 3/1
Tigers 6/1
Rangers 7/1
Brewers 7/1
Rays 10/1
D’backs 12/1
Cardinals 16/1

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