Thanks, Dog.
Recap: 2-0
Record: 10-10
From yesterday:
"The theory going in was to Fade the consensus plays, but going into week 6 my charts show that any game where the consensus has a two to one or more advantage on a side they're hitting at 67%.
That's a play ON number not AGAINST."
Both Birmingham and St Louis hit the parameters noted above, and both covered.
Content with getting back to even I stayed off the late games, saved a little juice as I would have probably made the same two plays I used in the morning, the 67% spot on St Louis and the Over.
Here are today's consensus numbers:
Mich 6, Arl 2; Ov 4, Un 2
SA 7, DC 1; Ov 3, Un 1
Both Mich and SA have a 2-1 or better advantage.
So . . .
Mich -3'
Recap: 2-0
Record: 10-10
From yesterday:
"The theory going in was to Fade the consensus plays, but going into week 6 my charts show that any game where the consensus has a two to one or more advantage on a side they're hitting at 67%.
That's a play ON number not AGAINST."
Both Birmingham and St Louis hit the parameters noted above, and both covered.
Content with getting back to even I stayed off the late games, saved a little juice as I would have probably made the same two plays I used in the morning, the 67% spot on St Louis and the Over.
Here are today's consensus numbers:
Mich 6, Arl 2; Ov 4, Un 2
SA 7, DC 1; Ov 3, Un 1
Both Mich and SA have a 2-1 or better advantage.
So . . .
Mich -3'
Recap: 0-1
Record: 10-11
Lost Sunday's play when Michigan won but couldn't cover the three-point spread, but a 2-1 weekend knocks my unit deficit in half, down one now plus juice.
No real differentials in consensus picks this week, except for the total in the Arlington game, 6 Ov, 1 Un.
My charts show that a game with a differential like this on the Ov/Un has a record of 4-2 so I'll ride the Over in that one.
On the side we have a winless team laying 6. They've lost a lot of close ones and I think they get in the win column today but -6? I don't know.
In the late game we have the biggest game of the season so far with St Louis facing Birmingham. Got to have action on this one right, but what?
Consensus has a slight edge Birmingham, 6-4.
The number is at -4' now, up from -4.
I lean Birmingham but I'll see how the morning game goes before deciding whether to pull the trigger on a recommendation for the late game.
Mem/Arl Ov 45'
Record: 10-11
Lost Sunday's play when Michigan won but couldn't cover the three-point spread, but a 2-1 weekend knocks my unit deficit in half, down one now plus juice.
No real differentials in consensus picks this week, except for the total in the Arlington game, 6 Ov, 1 Un.
My charts show that a game with a differential like this on the Ov/Un has a record of 4-2 so I'll ride the Over in that one.
On the side we have a winless team laying 6. They've lost a lot of close ones and I think they get in the win column today but -6? I don't know.
In the late game we have the biggest game of the season so far with St Louis facing Birmingham. Got to have action on this one right, but what?
Consensus has a slight edge Birmingham, 6-4.
The number is at -4' now, up from -4.
I lean Birmingham but I'll see how the morning game goes before deciding whether to pull the trigger on a recommendation for the late game.
Mem/Arl Ov 45'
