Super Bowl LVIII odds: Should strength of schedule matter in your handicap?

carlitosway · Feb 9, 2024

Based on a note from Mitch Moss, Adam Burke looked at strength of schedule differences and the Super Bowl.

Chiefs played much tougher schedule per Jeff Sagarin than 49ers

Does strength of schedule matter when it comes to the Super Bowl?

Follow The Money host Mitch Moss tweeted about the strength of schedule (SOS) difference between the Eagles and Chiefs last year using the metrics of Jeff Sagarin and the same concept applies this year with the Chiefs and 49ers. His findings – along with past Super Bowl results – are interesting to say the least.

Super Bowl LVIII Odds

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2, 47.5)

Past Super Bowl history by strength of schedule dating back to 2000

(strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin unless noted)

Super Bowl LVIII (2024) – Chiefs (5), 49ers (20)
Super Bowl LVII (2023) – Chiefs (16), Eagles (31)
Super Bowl LVI (2022) – Rams (5), Bengals (22)
Super Bowl LV (2021) – Buccaneers (1), Chiefs (6) – per TeamRankings*
Super Bowl LIV (2020) – 49ers (7), Chiefs (10)
Super Bowl LIII (2019) – Rams (14), Patriots (23)
Super Bowl LII (2018) – Eagles (13), Patriots (24)
Super Bowl LI (2017) – Falcons (9), Patriots (32)
Super Bowl 50 (2016) – Broncos (5), Panthers (25)
Super Bowl XLIX (2015) – Patriots (4), Seahawks (9)
Super Bowl XLVIII (2014) – Seahawks (7), Broncos (16)
Super Bowl XLVII (2013) – 49ers (3), Ravens (13)
Super Bowl XLVI (2012) – Giants (1), Patriots (13)
Super Bowl XLV (2011) – Packers (7), Steelers (10)
Super Bowl XLIV (2010) – Colts (11), Saints (15)
Super Bowl XLIII (2009) – Steelers (4), Cardinals (16)
Super Bowl XLII (2008) – Giants (2), Patriots (19)
Super Bowl XLI (2007) – Colts (5), Bears (24)
Super Bowl XL (2006) – Steelers (4), Seahawks (31)
Super Bowl XXXIX (2005) – Patriots (7), Eagles (19)
Super Bowl XXXVIII (2004) – Patriots (10), Panthers (22) – per TeamRankings*
Super Bowl XXXVII (2003) – Raiders (1), Buccaneers (12)
Super Bowl XXXVI (2002) – Rams (15), Patriots (20)
Super Bowl XXXV (2001) – Ravens (21), Giants (23)
Super Bowl XXXIV (2000) – Titans (22), Rams (31)

In 14 games with a SOS difference of 10 or more spots, the team that played the better schedule is 11-3 straight up and 9-5 ATS, with one of those losses coming when the Patriots erased a 28-3 deficit against the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. New England played the league’s lowest SOS that season and dug a huge hole, but crawled out of it to win in the only Super Bowl that has gone to overtime.
It may be worth noting that of those 11 winners, nine of them played a top-10 strength of schedule and seven of them played a top-five schedule. That would apply to this year’s Chiefs.