Padres vs. Giants MLB Picks: Should You Fade Arrieta in San Francisco?

Anthony DeSclafani #26 of the San Francisco Giants.   Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images/AFP

Anthony DeSclafani #26 of the San Francisco Giants. Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images/AFP

The San Diego Padres have a must-win game when they visit the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday. Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and MLB picks.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants

Tuesday, September 14, 2021 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park

Can Arrieta Help the Padres on Tuesday? 

The San Diego Padres were supposed to fight for the National League West title with the Dodgers but making the postseason won’t be easy, as they will have to play a win-or-go-home Wild Card game where anything can happen. The San Francisco Giants, on the other hand, are the biggest surprise of the season, and they need this game to keep their distance from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres also can’t lose on Tuesday, with teams like the Reds, Phillies, Cardinals and Mets all waiting for them to collapse. San Diego scored just four runs while getting swept in their three-game series against Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium last weekend and the Giants beat them 9-1 on Monday. Their 73 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in September ranks 28th in the majors and they’re 27th with a .276 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in that span.

The Giants have won eight straight games and they rank third with a .329 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and fourth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) at 108. Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Crawford lead the way on offense, all with 20 home runs or more and overall, the Giants have 10 players with at least 10 home runs.

The Padres will give the ball to Jake Arrieta (6.09 FIP), while the Giants turn to Anthony DeSclafani (3.75 FIP). This matchup favors the Giants, who are up 11 units behind DeSclafani this year while going 18-9 in his starts. Arrieta’s teams are 0-10 in his last 10 starts. Overall the Cubs and Padres are 1-12 in his last 13 starts and he’s cost them 9.3 units this season. The Padres are 0-2 in his two starts with them this year, down 2.45 units.

Jake Arrieta (5-12, 7.04 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) allowed three earned runs on three hits (one home run) with three strikeouts and one walk over five innings to get a no-decision in a 6-3 home loss against the Astros last Friday and he’s now 0-1 with an 8.89 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings over two starts with the Padres this season. The current Giants lineup is 23-for-117 (.247) against him but he gave up six earned runs on six hits (two home runs) with one strikeout and two walks over just two innings in an 8-5 loss against them on June 4th when he was with the Cubs.

Anthony DeSclafani (11-6, 3.33 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) allowed three earned runs on seven hits with five strikeouts and one walk over 4 1/3 innings to get a no-decision in a 7-4 road win against the Rockies last Wednesday and he’s after his first win since August 13th. The current Padres lineup is 24-for-113 (.162) against DeSclafani. Fernando Tatis Jr. is just 1-for-9 (.111) with one home run against him. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in three starts against the Padres this season.

Prediction

The Giants opened at -155 at DraftKings, but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at -178 based on our calculations (they suggest the Giants will win this game 64 percent of the time). Keep an eye on Brandon Crawford (136 Weighted Runs Created Plus). A Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 100 is the league average. Crawford’s 136 Weighted Runs Created Plus is 36 percent above the league average, and he leads the Giants in batting average, RBIs, On-Base Percentage (OBP) and hits and he’s hitting .313 at home with nine home runs and 43 RBIs in 57 games.

The Padres rank No. 28 in hitting value (0.0 WAR) in September according to FanGraphs while the Giants are second in the majors at 4.4 WAR and the Padres are No. 27 in Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in September at .276 while the Giants are second in baseball with a .376 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in that span. San Diego’s projected lineup has three batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340 and the San Francisco lineup has six batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340 and five batters with Isolated Power (ISO) above .185. I will take the Giants. Keep that bet size small.

MLB Pick: Giants -1 (-111) (ML -155, RL -1.5 (+130) ) at DraftKings

** -1 created with a run line calculator

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