NFL Betting Preview: Packers at Falcons

Packers Falcons logosThe Atlanta Falcons (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) will be playing at home in the NFL playoffs betting for the first time in six years when they host the Green Bay Packers (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) on Saturday night (8:00 p.m. ET, FOX).

The Falcons finished with the best record in the NFC and had a bye last week while the Packers played in Philadelphia. The Packers were able to pull out a win against the Eagles and now they get a rematch against the Falcons, who beat them earlier this season on a late Matt Bryant field goal.

Atlanta is listed as a 2.5-point home favorite at and the total is set at 43.5. On the moneyline, the Falcons are -140; the Pack are +120.

The Falcons have been difficult to beat at home with Matt Ryan at quarterback. The third-year pro is 20-2 in his career at home in the Georgia Dome. Ryan threw for 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns this NFL betting season.

The Falcons are not one-dimensional, however. They have a very good running attack led by Michael Turner, who finished with 1,371 yards and 12 TDs this season. The seven-year veteran has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his two career starts against Green Bay.

The Packers will try to get another road win this week after surviving Michael Vick and the Eagles last week. Aaron Rodgers got his first playoff win – 21-16 as 1.5-point road dogs – throwing for 180 yards and three TDs. Green Bay also got 123 yards from running back James Starks.

The Packers have played a lot of close games on the road this season. Last week’s win at Philadelphia was the seventh road game this season for Green Bay that was decided by a touchdown or less.

When the Packers and Falcons met earlier this season it was a close game throughout with the score being tied at 3, at 10 and at 17 before Atlanta pulled off the 20-17 victory as 2-point home favorites.

Here are some key NFL betting stats for Saturday’s game:

The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Divisional Playoffs games. The Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog.

The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. the NFC. The Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. In this series, the Falcons are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

The under is 8-1 in the Packers’ last nine road games. The over is 7-2-2 in the Falcons’ last 11 games overall. The over is 6-2-2 in the Falcons’ last 10 games as a favorite.

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