NFL Betting: Overreactions to Week 1

During NFL season Monday mornings are for one thing — overreacting. People emerge from their Sunday football coma and assume that what they saw the day before changed everything. That’s almost never actually true — and the successful long-term bettors are the ones that can resist the temptation to jump to conclusions.

Here are the four best opportunities to overreact after the opening weekend:

New Orleans

The Saints were terrible in their opener. To add to the insult, they got schooled by a raw rookie QB who was supposed to struggle to adapt to a new playing style and a massive lack of talent around him.

If ever a team deserves a mulligan, though, it is the Saints.

They were dealing with the drama of player’s suspensions, an uncertain coaching situation, and so much else. They didn’t handle it well, but they’ll find their legs soon enough.

The good news? The struggles potentially created some nice value next week. They are favored by just one at Carolina, but would have been giving up more points if they had done what was expected in the opener.

New York Jets

All the Jets fans out there are totally intolerable right now as they use “I told you so” in every sentence.

The offense that struggled historically in the preseason was incredibly explosive in the opener against Buffalo.

Is Mark Sanchez the next Peyton Manning? Or did he and his team benefit from a pathetic Buffalo pass rush, and an opposing QB who could only complete passes to defenders? I lean towards the latter — at least until they prove that they can do it again.

Peyton-mania

Peyton Manning had a solid game, but Denver shouldn’t start planning the Super Bowl parade just yet. Pittsburgh’s offensive line was as bad as expected, and Denver’s strong front seven ensured that Roethlisberger never got comfortable.

It won’t always be that easy, so smart bettors probably aren’t yet joining the public stampede to bet even more on Denver Super Bowl futures.

Nothing I saw in that game justified 12/1 odds to win it all — not even close.

Michael Vick

Vick was as bad as he has ever been in his opener against Cleveland. He threw four picks, and he would have thrown a fifth on the eventual winning drive if Cleveland’s defenders had softer hands.

He was so bad that I have seen more than one person ask if Nick Foles is the answer in Philly. He’s not.

After missing most of the preseason it seems clear that Vick’s issues were mental — he was second guessing himself on every step. Vick is a veteran, and he is certainly no stranger to having to bounce back from a dud of a day, so it’s too soon to write him off just yet.

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