NFC Championship Betting Preview: Packers at Bears

NFC Championship logoIn a matchup between longtime rivals, the Chicago Bears (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) host the Green Bay Packers (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) in the NFC Championship on Sunday (3:00 p.m. ET, FOX).

The teams have met 181 times in their history but this will be only the second time they have ever met in the playoffs. The teams met twice this season with each team winning at home.

Green Bay is listed as a 3-point road favorite at SBGGlobal.com and the total is set at 43.5. On the moneyline, the Packers are -200; the Bears are +170.

Chicago won the first meeting this season back in September at Soldier Field by a score of 20-17 as 3-point home dogs.

The Packers won the other meeting in the final week of the regular season by a score of 10-3 at Lambeau as 11.5-point home favorites. That game got the Packers into the playoffs and Green Bay has looked very good since, winning at Philadelphia and at Atlanta.

The Packers are trying to become the first No. 6 seed in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl.

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is playing better than any quarterback in the league right now. He was 31 of 36 for 366 yards and three TDs last Saturday in the win over Atlanta. In his last nine games he has 22 TDs and two interceptions.

On the other side, Chicago QB Jay Cutler threw for 274 yards and two touchdowns last week against Seattle and Cutler also ran for two scores.

Green Bay had the second ranked defense in the league this season, giving up just 15 points per game while Chicago was fourth best, allowing 17.9 per game.

The Packers have Rodgers and a little bit of an edge on defense but Chicago has the edge in special teams with Devin Hester. Chicago also has the home-field edge.

All in all, it should be a close game, which would be no surprise since each of the last five meetings between the two teams has been decided by a TD or less.

Here are some key NFL betting stats for Sunday’s game:

The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.

The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

The over is 5-2 in the Packers’ last seven playoff road games. The over is 4-0 in the Bears’ last four home games. The under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the two teams and the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.

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