NBA Playoffs Betting Preview: Thunder at Grizzlies

Thunder Grizzlies logosThe Memphis Grizzlies will try to pull off another surprise on Monday night as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal series (9:35 pm ET, TNT).

The Grizzlies beat Oklahoma City on Saturday to take a 2-1 series lead. Memphis was down 13 points to start the fourth quarter on Saturday but they rallied to get a 101-93 win in overtime as 3-point home favorites.

For Game 4, Memphis is listed as an 2.5-point home favorite at and the total is 198. On the moneyline, the Grizzlies are -140; the Thunder are +120.

Memphis is definitely not playing like a No. 8 seed and looks like a team that’s hungry to make it to the NBA Finals. The Grizzlies have been extremely good at home. In fact, they are tied for the best home record of any team since January 1.

The Thunder should have won Game 3 on Saturday night and if they end up losing this series they may look back on the loss that cost them the series. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook really struggled in crunch time on Saturday as they combined to go 0 for 10 in the last five minutes of regulation and overtime.

Durant and Westbrook can get a lot of the credit for propelling the Thunder to where they are now, so when the two stars play poorly it’s a problem. Westbrook, in particular, continues to be a ball hog at times and is still turning it over way too much.

The Grizzlies outscored the Thunder 23-10 in the fourth quarter on Game 3 and continued their success in overtime outscoring Oklahoma City 15 to 7. Zach Randolph was huge scoring seven of his 21 points down the stretch and pulling down seven of his 21 rebounds.

Many felt No. 4 Oklahoma City should win this series but history is now against them. When the home team wins Game 3 in a series tied 1-1, that team has gone on to win just over 70 percent of the time in NBA history.

Here are some key NBA Playoff betting stats for Monday’s game:

The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games. The Thunder are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.

The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games. The Grizzlies are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.

The under is 5-1-1 in Oklahoma City’s last seven games as a road underdog. The over is 5-1 in the Grizzlies’ last six overall. The under is 9-4 in the Grizzlies’ last 13 home games. The over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the two teams.

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