LSU Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies NCAAF Betting Preview

Screen Shot 2016-11-25 at 5.46.21 PMCollege football action on Thanksgiving as a pair of SEC foes will duke it out as the LSU Tigers grapple with the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle field in College Station, Texas. The Tigers are at 6-4 on the year and off a shocking 16-10 home loss to Florida, while the 8-3 Aggies are off a 23-10 win over UTSA. This contest has a start time of 7:30 pm EST.

Vegas odds have the Tigers listed as 6.5 point favorites, while the total has been set at 48.5. The game has a start time of 7:30 pm EST and will be televised on ESPN.

Breaking Down The LSU Tigers

The LSU Tigers have had an up-and-down season and they are off another low point as they fell at home last week to Florida and they were 14 point favorites in that game. The final was 16-10 in what was an old fashioned SEC defensive slugfest. The Tigers were 2-2 when they fired Les Miles and made Ed Orgeron the interim coach. They have gone 4-2 since then and one has to wonder if Orgeron has done enough to keep the head coaching job. Probably not, but he has done a nice job in his time in there. They offense has really opened up for the most part, but they did score 10 points combined in their losses to Alabama and Florida, plus they scored just 13 vs Auburn and 14 vs Wisconsin earlier in the year. That’s an average of 9.3 ppg vs those four teams, compared to scoring 36.7 ppg vs the rest of the team on their schedule. They will face a defense that gives up plenty of yards, but not plenty of points. The Tigers come in ranked 69th in total offense, 109th in passing, 21st in rushing and 85th in scoring, putting up just 25.7 ppg. The defense is where this team’s bread is buttered as they come in ranked 11th in total yards allowed, 25th vs the pass, 14th vs the run and 6th in points allowed, giving up just 14.1 ppg. This defense will really be tested in this one.

Breaking Down The Texas A&M Aggies

The Texas A&M Aggies have had another solid season season as they are 8-3 over overall and they went 4-3 in the SEC. They were were expected to to be one of the worst teams in the SEC West, but that did not happen. They at one point were ranked in the top 10 in the nation. But they have lost two of their last three games and have now dropped out of the top 25. Their lone win over that stretch was last week when they beat UTSA, but even that was a lackluster win as they won just 23-10. The Aggies did lose QB Trevor Knight in the early part of the month and the loss was huge as they have averaged just 385 ypg and 26.3 ppg over their last 3 games. John Hubenak has taken over, but he isn’t nearly the dual threat that Knight was. Overall this offense comes in ranked 31st in the nation in total yards 53rd in passing 28th in rushing and 34th in scoring, putting up 35.1 ppg. On defense they have had their struggles at times this year as they come in ranked 81st in total yards allowed, 88th vs the pass, 75th vs the run and 21st in points allowed, giving up 21.1 ppg. They have given up their share of yards but not many points.

Trends: The Tigers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, but just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in November. The Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game, while the Under is 16-5-1 in their last 22 conference games.

The Aggies have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game, but just 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games in November. The Over is 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, while the Under is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games on grass.

 

 

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