LSU Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks NCAAF Betting Preview

Screen Shot 2016-11-11 at 7.52.51 AMThe 24th ranked LSU Tigers (5-3) are off their annual war with Alabama, which they lost 10-0. Saturday, they pay a visit to Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium to rumble with the 25th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks (6-3), who are off a shocking 31-10 win over Florida. Last year the Hogs won by a score of 31-14.

Vegas odds have the Tigers listed as 7 point favorites, while the total has been set at 46. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm EST and will be televised on ESPN.

Breaking Down The LSU Tigers

The LSU Tigers come in off yet another loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tigers really fought hard in that game, but in the end it was just too much defense by the Tide in the 10-0 win. It was the first loss for the Tigers under Ed Orgeron. The LSU offense was hot in his first three games as they put up 536 ypg and 41.7 ppg over that stretch, but vs the Tide they were able to muster just 125 yards of total offense. That is pitiful, even though they were facing a very good defense. Leonard Fournette has struggled in his career vs Alabama and he did so again in this one as he ran for just 35 yards in the game. He now has just 705 yards on the year, after rushing for 1953 yards last year. Overall this year the offense has struggled as they are 84th in total yards, 110th in passing, 34th in rushing and 82nd in scoring, putting up 26.1 ppg. They say defense wins championships, but at some point you have to be able to score as well and they weren’t able to do that in this game. The defense did play well as they held Alabama to just 10 points and 323 yards, which are far below the Tide’s seasonal averages. Still, it wasn’t enough to win the game. The Tigers have a very strong defense that comes in ranked 13th in yards allowed, 26th vs the pass, 19th vs the run and 6th in points allowed, giving up just 14.4 ppg.

Breaking Down the Arkansas Razorbacks

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a bit inconsistent at times this year, but they do come in off a very nice 31-10 home win over the Gators. This was one the heels of a 56-3 loss at Auburn 2 weeks before and that was on the heels of a 34-30 win at home vs Ole Miss. Very inconsistent, but they have played well at home, with their lone home loss coming to Alabama, which is no real surprise. The Hogs have to be careful here as they are taking on an LSU team that is offense bad loss and ios seeking revenge for last year’s 31-14 loss at the hands of these Razorbacks. Arkansas is normally a team that likes to use  a powerful ground game to move the ball, but this year they have been passing a bit more as they rank 44th in the nation in that department, compared to 73rd in rushing. Austin Allen has been solid at the QB slot as he has thrown for 2291 yards and 19 TDs, but still they would love to get more from their run game, especially vs this tough LSU defense. Overall, the Hogs are 51st in total offense and 5rth in scoring, putting up 30.9 ppg. On defense they are average at best as they come in ranked 66th in total yards allowed, 44th vs the pass, 92nd vs the run and 74th in points allowed, giving up 29 ppg. This defense will have to step up vs an LSU offense that really struggled last week vs Alabama, but also put up huge numbers in their previous three games.

Trends: LSU has gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, while the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 conference games.

Arkansas has gone 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games in November and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Over is 39-19 in their last 58 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, while the Under is 5-1 in their last 6 home games.

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