Giants vs. Padres MLB Preview

Jurickson Profar #10 of the San Diego Padres pumps his fist as he scores during the second inning.  Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

Jurickson Profar #10 of the San Diego Padres pumps his fist as he scores during the second inning. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

With Fernando Tatis injured and out, do the Padres have enough offense against the Giants to win behind Darvish?

 

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

Tuesday, April 06, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Petco Park

Probable Pitchers:

● Giants: Aaron Sanchez (2020 Stats: N/A)

● Padres: Yu Darvish 0-0, 7.71 ERA

Yu Darvish didn’t have the best debut for the Padres in his first outing after going 4.2 innings and allowing four runs off eight hits. It’s going to be a bit different pitching in San Diego compared to the Windy City so we’ll likely see more home runs off of Darvish this season. He still struck out six against the Diamondbacks and the Padres ended up winning that game, 8-7.

If you combine this year and last year, Darvish has gone 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA along with a 2.51 FIP. That’s ace material. He’s able to get a high amount of strikeouts, limit walks and is really good under pressure, leaving over 83 percent of runners on base. Last year, Darvish had a .45 ERA on the road, away from Chicago, so my theory might be off a bit but being in hotter weather can’t help when it comes to allowing home runs.

Both lefties and righties hit .211 against Darvish last season but the Cubs bats would ultimately let down Darvish at times. The Padres bats should be better although they struggled last night against the Giants. Fernando Tatis injured himself swinging too hard and now the Padres lineup looks a little worse than usual.

Sanchez didn’t pitch in 2020 but did pitch in 2019 where he finished the season allowing five home runs and nine runs in his last 7.2 innings with the Astros. In 2019, both lefties and righties hit over .275 against and he allowed 21 home runs in 521 at bats going 5-14 on the season after starting 27 games.

Righties had an on base percentage of .383 against Sanchez as walks quickly became a problem. More slugging came from lefties against Sanchez. So either way you look at it, the Padres should find ways on the base whether it’s a walk or a base hit.

The Giants lineup has some potential against righties. Tommy LaStella, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Alex Dickerson and Donovan Solano all have weighted OBA of above .340 against righties. But Darvish isn’t just an ordinary righty and pounds the strike zone and makes batters earn everything.

The Padres should have scored a lot more last night with the middle of their lineup but struggled against DeSclafani. Now without Tatis, things can get interesting in a hurry for this team.

 

Prediction

The Padres came up short last night but should be back slugging away in this one. Aaron Sanchez hasn’t pitched in the MLB since 2019. When he concluded that season, he was attrious. I would expect more of the same.

Darvish should come into his own. You can always expect Darvish to get high amount of strikeouts and low walks. Home runs might get higher this season but Darvish is still an ace pitcher and will provide just that for the Padres this season. Don’t wave him off after one start.

But just in case he starts giving up long balls again, I’d rather take the Padres on the team total. If they’re going to win this game, they’ll need to score early and press on the gas often. Take the Padres on the team total. They didn’t get there yesterday but should tonight.

MLB Bet: Padres Over 4.5 Team Total (-115) at BetOnline

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