Free NCAAF Pick: Pitt at Virginia

The Pittsburgh Panthers and the Virginia Cavaliers clash this Saturday night at Scott Stadium in a key conference matchup in the ACC’s Coastal Division. The game is set to kickoff at 7:30 p.m. (ET), and it will be available nationally on ESPN3.

Pitt is coming off a disappointing 21-10 loss to Akron this past Saturday as a 21-point favorite at home. The Panthers are now 3-2 straight up on the year with a 2-3 record against the spread. The total has stayed “under” in their last two games.

The Cavaliers have won three of their first five games SU as well, and they come into this contest with a perfect 5-0 mark ATS. This past Saturday they beat Kent State 45-13 as 26-point home favorites, and the total has now gone “over” in three of their last five games.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Betting Storylines

Pittsburgh appeared to be gaining some traction through the early part of the season, but last week’s unexpected loss to the Zips was a major step backwards for this program. This followed a 24-20 loss to Iowa as a 6.5-point home favorite in Week 4. The offense is averaging 32.8 points per game, but it has tallied a combined total of only 30 points in its last two outings. Quarterback Chad Voytik threw for 220 yards and a score against Akron, but he completed less than 60 percent of his 34 attempts and was intercepted once.

The Panthers defense is ranked 23rd in the nation in points allowed in giving up an average of just 18 PPG, but these stats have been padded a bit against some less-than-competitive games earlier in the season. This unit has yet to really be tested against a quality offense, and if last week’s loss is any indication it could have its issues stopping Virginia this week.

The Cavaliers were well down in the rankings when it came to the futures odds to win the ACC this season, but they have as good a chance as anyone to still earn a spot in the conference title game by winning their division. They already upset newcomer Louisville 23-21 as four-point home underdogs to post a key victory in their ACC opener. Virginia also gave UCLA and BYU all they could handle by covering as a double-digit underdog earlier this year.

This team has shown some solid balance on both sides of the ball with an offense that is generating 33.2 PPG and a defense that is holding teams to 23.2 PPG. Kevin Parks has anchored the ground game with 258 yards rushing on 75 attempts, and Canaan Severin has been a huge target in the passing game with 20 receptions for 225 yards and two scores.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Betting Odds and Trends
Pointspread: Virginia -4.5
Total Line: OFF

The betting trends have the Panthers listed at 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road, and the total has stayed under in 12 of their last 18 road games.

The Cavaliers have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home, and they have covered in their last seven games overall. The total has gone “over” in 10 of their last 13 games.

Head-to-head in this ACC matchup, the favorite has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the total has been evenly split 2-2.

College Football Picks: Pittsburgh at Virginia Betting Predictions

These two ACC foes appear to be heading in opposite directions as they both enter the meat of the conference schedule. The Cavaliers know that this is a must-win game to keep their Coastal Division title hopes alive, and they are catching the Panthers at a great time to nail down the SU win at home by well more than the current 4.5-point spread.

Take: # 332 Virginia (-4.5) over Pittsburgh- 7:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4

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