Free NBA Pick: Wizards at Bucks

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As a sample of what our clients have access to each and every day through the members’ area, copied and pasted below is the prediction and analysis for one of our premium picks tonight (Feb 11th, 2013)

#1: Take Washington Wizards at +4.5 spread against Milwaukee Bucks risking 4 Units (4% of your overall bankroll)

Looking at a side by side comparison of these two teams tells an interesting story. The Wizards come into this game on a 3-game win streak. What’s impressive is not necessarily the win streak itself, (even though 3 wins straight for the Wizards is impressive) but it’s against who the wins have come over.

Over their last 3 games, Washington has downed the Clippers, the Knicks and the Nets. That says a lot about a team that started off the season 0-13. A lot of their recent success has to be attributed to the re-insertion of John Wall into the Wizards line-up. Since Wall has returned the Wizards are playing above .500 basketball and their offense has been sparked but it has been the emergence of their defense over the last 3 games which is the big story here. Over their last 3 games the Wizards have only allowed 88 points per game; which is nearly 10 points better than Washington’s average points allowed on the season.

Those who simply go by the overall record of the Wizards aren’t seeing the full potential of this team. This team has shown that they can step up when they have to and have the potential to hang tough with any team in the league. Just this season the Wizards have beaten the Thunder, Hawks, Nets, Bulls, Clippers and Knicks at home and have even taken down Portland and Denver, two of the leagues toughest teams to beat on the road.

While it’s hard to ignore Washington’s 14-35 overall record, the overall record means almost nothing from a sports-betting point of view. What matters to sports bettors is not whether a team wins or loses; it’s who covers the spread. The Wizards may not win a lot of games straight up but they are the absolute best team when it comes to covering spreads. They have an overall ATS record of 30-17, which means they have handsomely rewarded those who have had the “guts” to back them this season, which we have multiple times and have profited each time.

The Milwaukee Bucks on the other hand are headed in the exact opposite direction. The Bucks are struggling right now dropping 3 straight games to the Nuggets, Pistons and Jazz and 5 of their last 6 overall. The Bucks had seemingly turned their season around a few weeks ago and had many people talking about possibly making the playoffs. The real Achilles heel to this Bucks team has been their defense, or lack there of. Over their last 6 games the Bucks have allowed over 96 points in each one of them including giving up 105 to a mediocre Pistons team. The Bucks have the offense to put points on the board, but their defense has a problem stopping anyone. The Bucks jumped out to a double-digit lead over the Jazz and somehow ended up losing the game by 14 points! Even when they’re winning they look like they’re losing so I do not trust them with any size lead.

The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the East, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against teams with records below .400, and incredibly, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Granted, they’ve lost 5 of those 6 straight up with their lone win coming in a 9 point victory over the lowly Orlando Magic which still was not enough to cover the spread.

These two teams have met once this season already with the Bucks pulling out a 101-91 win and cover. In a revenge situation such as this I have to side with the Wizards in this one. Not only because they are playing much better basketball than the Bucks right now but given their 13-0 ATS mark when revenging a home loss against an opponent.

Other notable trends:

- The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the East
- 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with winning records
- 6-2 ATS in their last 8 on the road and a very impressive 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games

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