The Boston Red Sox missed the playoffs the past two seasons but have come back with a vengeance this year and are right now technically the “best” team in the league so far. The Red Sox own a league best 18-7 record and have won five consecutive games! They are 7-3 in their last 10 games, 7-2 on the road this season and they currently have a 3 game lead in the AL East.

As a team the Red Sox are hitting .272 with David Ortiz hitting .516, Dustin Pedroia hitting .330, Daniel Nava hitting .310, and Shane Victorino is hitting .292. There isn’t a spot in this batting order that isn’t capable of producing hits and getting men on base.

The Red Sox this season are turning into the Yankees of old as they make teams pay for allowing players on base. Each and every Red Sox batter is a threat to hit it out of the park and the fact that they have already hit 23 home runs as a team supports that.

The Red Sox opponents are hitting just .221 and the Boston pitching staff has a combined ERA of 3.39. In seasons past it has been the pitching that has truly let the Red Sox down. Both Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester struggled to find any kind of rhythm last season. This season however, those two have been the stars of the Red Sox pitching rotation.

For Game 1 in Toronto, the Red Sox start Jon Lester who has been on fire thus far this year. For the season Lester has allowed 25 hits and 8 earned runs while striking out 28 over 31.2 innings for a 2.27 ERA! Tonight Lester will look to join both Buchholz and Tampa’s Matt Moore as April’s only 5-0 pitchers.

The Blue Jays are a team with a good squad that has struggled to start the season. The Jays have lost four in a row and are just 2-8 in their last 10 games! As a team the Blue Jays are hitting .229 with Melky Cabrera hitting .250, J.P Arencibia hitting .242, and Edwin Encarnacion hitting .227.

The Blue Jays opponents are hitting .263 and the Toronto pitching staff has a combined ERA of 4.46. Brandon Morrow gets the start for the Jays tonight and Morrow is still looking for his first win of the season. Morrow has allowed 33 hits and 16 earned runs while striking out 19 over 27.1 innings of work for a 0-2 record and a 5.27 ERA so far this season.

Toronto is 7-20 in their last 27 games against the AL East and only 6-18 in their last 24 games as an underdog. Boston on the other hand is 4-0 in their last four road games, 13-3 in their last 16 games overall, and 7-3 in Lester’s last 10 road starts. There is good value backing the Red Sox tonight who I feel are the better team and have the better pitcher.

Take Boston Red Sox on the moneyline (-118) against Toronto Blue Jays risking 2% (Lester and Morrow must start)

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The Pirates are batting .207 on the road this season and they average just 3 runs per game. Going up against Wandy Rodriquez is a very favorable matchup advantage for the Brewers. Milwaukee is batting .282 against left handed starters and they have a .333 on base percentage. This will be the 8th consecutive road game for Pittsburgh and the Pirates have dropped the opening game of the series in three of their last four on the road.

Free Pick on Milwaukee Brewers -128

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Revis also agreed to a six-year contract worth a reported $96 million, of which none is guaranteed.

In light of the trade, online sportsbook Bovada has posted a couple of player props for the upcoming season.

Darrelle Revis – Total interceptions in the 2013 Regular Season?
Over/Under 3

Darrelle Revis – Will he play in all 16 games in the 2013 Regular Season?
Yes +150
No -200

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The following complimentary selection and analysis is one of our baseball picks for April 19 and a sample of what clients can expect from SMPS on a daily basis. Win or lose, our team feels the value lies with the Cardinals tonight and are risking 2% of bankroll on them.

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

This is an interesting match-up tonight. Simply looking at where the line for this game has set up and seeing Roy Halladay as an underdog is intriguing. It’s not to often that you get a pitcher such as Halladay slated in the underdog role and when you do, it is always worth giving him a second look. This season however, it appears that there is a different Roy Halladay on the mound.

So far, Halladay has allowed 17 hits and 13 earned runs in over 15 innings of work. This has given him a 1-2 record and a 7.63 ERA to start the season! Halladay has also surrendered 3 home-runs this season and has struck out 14 batters.

The Cardinals counter with lefty Jaime Garcia. Garcia is off to a nice start this season going 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA. Garcia had gone 19.3 innings and given up 4 earned runs on 15 hits with 2 homeruns. He has also struck out 19 batters to start the season.

There is always more to a baseball game than simple pitching match-ups however and that is where I believe the major difference in this game lies. Philadelphia has simply not produced the offense needed in critical times to get runners past home plate. In last night’s game, the Phillies had a combined 13 hits among them and yet were only able to get 3 runs on the scoreboard. Three runs in this league, the way that a majority of the teams are scoring to start the season is just not enough to get the job done. A team’s pitching staff can be absolutely superb for the game but if a team doesn’t offer their pitcher any support, that effort is almost all for nothing.

Philadelphia has been struggling on offense and that has caused them to drop their last 4 games (and 5 of 6). During this losing streak Philadelphia is only averaging 1.67 runs per game! Even if the pitching is superior, it is not often that 1 or 2 runs win a ball game. Philadelphia has also struggled against left handed pitchers in the past. This season they are 0-1 against lefties, scoring just 2 runs per game.

St Louis on the other hand is one of the higher scoring teams in the league this season. They are averaging 5.5 runs per game, 5.7 on the road and 6.1 against right handed pitchers! As a team, St Louis is batting .258 against right handed pitchers.

While it is tempting to look at a pitcher like Halladay and believe there is value backing him as a home underdog, I believe the line is where it is at for a reason and the value actually lies with the Cardinals in this case. St Louis is the team that has showed the most consistency between the two thus far and the ability to put runs on the board. Halladay’s numbers won’t stay this poor for the season but while both he and the Phillies as a whole are struggling, St Louis looks like the correct side here.

In terms of trends, there are plenty that back the Cardinals in this match-up:

· The Cardinals are 4-2 in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia.
· The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games on the road.
· The Cardinals have won 6 out of their last 8 games.
· Philadelphia is 1-5 in its last 6 games.
· Philadelphia has only won 3 of its last 9 home games.

Take St Louis Cardinals on the moneyline (-115) against Phildelphia Phillies risking 2% (Garcia and Halladay must start)

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. They face a Knicks team that is trending in the wrong direction. In the heart of their 13 game win streak the Knicks were averaging over 50% shooting. They have gone over 50% only one time in their last four games coming into this matchup against the Cavaliers.

Play on Cleveland +4.5

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Defensively the Warriors have not played well this season giving up 99.9 points per game. In fact, the Oklahoma City defense is holding opponents to 97.7 points per game on the road and the offense is outscoring the Warriors by a full 5 points per game. Oklahoma City has a road record that is just two games back of Golden State’s record at home. The Thunder are the better team in this matchup and it will show today.

Play on Oklahoma City

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This team is well coached, they are playing hard, and they have some really nice young players that are starting to come into their own. Ricky Rubio is playing out of his mind lately, and we know with the way this team has been playing that they will be motivated to avoid the season sweep after they had played extremely well against the Clippers last season in winning three of their four matchups.

The Clippers seem to play well every other game for the last couple of months, and we think this is a letdown spot for them after their last big win over the Lakers (a game we won for a huge pick on Sunday). The T-Wolves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 visits to Staples Center to play the Clippers, and they have covered their last four road games as well.

#717 Take Minnesota +11.5 over LA Clippers

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This game falls into another system to play on a favorite that is a good team like Indiana when they are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game on the season and coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This system is 90-54 (63%) ATS over the last five seasons. Indiana’s defense has been solid at home holding opponents to 88.7 points per game and they offense should have no problem scoring on a Cavaliers defense that is allowing 102.5 points per game on the road. The Pacers should pick up a big win today.

Play on Indiana Pacers.

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Ohio State is coming off a game where they went 9 of 18 from the 3-point line including a last second shot by Aaron Craft to get the win over Iowa State. This game also falls into a system to play on a team like Arizona when they are playing on a neutral court and have had two straight games shooting 50% or better and playing against a team that is coming off a game where they made 50% or more of their 3 point attempts. This system is 48-16 (72%) ATS.

Play on Arizona

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The Washington Nationals, who owned the best record in baseball last year, added two great pitchers, starter Dan Haren and reliever Rafael Soriano, to a pitching staff that was already considered one of the best, along with the addition of speedy outfielder Denard Spahn. They improved an already great team, but it’s the Atlanta Braves who made perhaps the biggest offseason splash in the NL, acquiring first BJ Upton, a five tool outfielder with proven success, and then his brother Justin Upton, 2011 MVP contender and one of the most diversely talented young player in the league.

However the improvement of NL teams like the Nationals and Braves was equaled by a few teams in the AL as well. The Blue Jays captured the biggest headlines of the offseason with their trade with the Marlins which brought in shortstop Jose Reyes, and starting pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle. With Reyes and Johnson as bonafide stars and Buerhle as one of the most consistent starters in the game, this move alone would have brought them to contention, but the Jays didn’t stop there, adding 2012 NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey as well as 2012 All Star MVP Melky Cabrera, additions which instantly catapult them to the top of contention.

The AL’s best team last year, the Detroit Tigers, also added some crucial pieces, where a string of young players were cycled as starters in right field last year they will now have All Star Torii Hunter, a huge improvement both offensively and defensively. The resigning of Anibal Sanchez will give the Tigers his services for a full year, and he is added into a rotation which includes the best pitcher in the game (Justin Verlander), one of the best young flamethrowers in Max Scherzer, and the perennially consistent Doug Fister. However perhaps the biggest addition is coming from in house, with the return of perennial All Star and one of the most consistently excellent hitters in the game, Victor Martinez.

The Angels, Tigers, and Blue Jays are the favorites in the AL, and the Braves, Nationals, and Dodgers are the favorites in the NL, so how is it going to shake out? The Angels lineup, including Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout, and Mike Trumbo, is likely the most formidable, though their starting pitching and bullpen is stellar and nothing more. The Tigers have likely the most complete team, with the best rotation in the AL, a star studded lineup including the 2012 Triple Crown and MVP Winner Miguel Cabrera, consistent MVP contender Prince Fielder, four time All Stars Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter, and a bullpen full of young flamethrowers, though health is a big question for their relievers, and consistency for young position players like Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks. The Blue Jays are stacked with talent, but the players they added include frequent underachievers (Reyes), injury prone players (Johnson), and a couple who have large question marks about their ability to produce consistently, especially in the more competitive AL (Cabrera and Dickey).

In the NL likely the overall favorite is the Dodgers, with a dominant pitching staff (Kershaw, Greinke, and Beckett) and a formidable lineup (Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Crawford). However they’re a bigger question mark than the Braves and Nationals, because production and health from many of their stars is uncertain. The high quality pitching of the Braves and Nationals, along with the Giants, assure their spot in contention, though their lineups don’t quite match up with the Dodgers. With so much talent on so few teams it’s difficult to set them apart, but the season’s almost here so the speculation can come to an end!

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Phoenix also shot the ball well in that game; the Suns shot 47.7% (42-88) from the field. But obviously that wasn’t nearly enough since the Wizards shot the lights out. The Suns are back at home where they are 16-17 this season; they are just 7-28 on the road. Washington also has a strong home/road dichotomy as the Wizards are 18-17 at home while just 5-26 on the road. The Suns crushed the Lakers in their last game 99-76 and we expect them to make it back-to-back wins on their home court tonight as they avenge their 22-point loss at Washington.

Play on Phoenix

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You should always play the under in a game involving two teams shooting 47% or more when they are average ball handling teams committing 14.5-16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 30-6 (83.3%) to the under since 1996.

This game also falls into a system to play the under when a team is revenging two consecutive straight up loss as a favorite like the Thunder when they are a good team winning 60-75% of their games and they are playing against a team with a winning record. This system is 121-72 in favor of the under.

Play on Thunder/Nuggets UNDER

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