Rays vs. Red Sox: Regression To The Mean

 

Brett Phillips #35 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with Brandon Lowe #8 and Wander Franco #5.   Greg Fiume/Getty Images/AFP

Brett Phillips #35 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with Brandon Lowe #8 and Wander Franco #5. Greg Fiume/Getty Images/AFP

 

The Tampa Bay Rays are the obvious choice for your Tuesday MLB picks when they visit the overpriced Boston Red Sox.

 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

Tuesday, August 10, 2021 at Fenway Park

Regression has come for the Boston Red Sox. After spending most of the 2021 Major League Baseball campaign on top of the American League East standings – despite a run differential that ranked third in their division – the Red Sox (65-49, plus-9.39 betting units) have finally seen their bubble burst. They’ve lost nine of their last 11 games to fall into second place behind the Tampa Bay Rays (68-44, plus-13.44 units), the reigning AL champions. Conveniently enough, the Rays will be at Fenway Park this Tuesday to open a pivotal three-game set, and they’re a compelling choice for your MLB picks after Caesars Sportsbook opened them as +120 road dogs. Boston do have home-field advantage, and the projected pitching matchup should be in their favor, with Eduardo Rodriguez (3.38 FIP) slated to start opposite Luis Patino (4.31 FIP). But Tampa’s strength elsewhere on the diamond makes this matchup a virtual coin flip.

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Angels vs. Dodgers MLB Preview and Best Bet

Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP

Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP

A Friday night showdown awaits in LA between the Angels and Dodgers as both teams try to stay alive in the playoff hunt in their respective leagues. Let’s analyze this latest Freeway Series chapter and keep cashing our MLB picks!

Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday, August 06, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

The Angels enter this latest iteration of the Freeway Series with three consecutive wins under their collective belts, the latest being a 5-0 blanking of the Rangers in Texas on Thursday night. Starter Dylan Bundy, who was demoted to the bullpen several weeks ago, made a triumphant second start since rejoining the rotation and pitched six-plus innings of three-hit shutout baseball and registered the win.

Adam Eaton went long with a solo shot in the third inning in what proved to be the winning run but José Iglesias chipped in with a two-run single in the sixth inning to ice the victory for the Halos. However, the big story was Bundy’s impressive start after getting hammered throughout most of the season. It was a change in his pitching mechanics that Bundy initially rejected, but ultimately embraced, that appeared to be the game-changer.

“It took some convincing,” Bundy said. “But it was about rock bottom for me there at that one point. Had to change something.

“Just getting used to the stuff that I’m working on,” Bundy said. “Starting to kind of show itself on the field and against the opposing team. So, it’s starting to feel better. Still a work in progress.”

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Padres vs. Athletics: The Floundering Fathers

Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres dodges a pitch. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres dodges a pitch. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

 

The San Diego Padres are vulnerable without Fernando Tatis – but they’re the value MLB pick Tuesday night versus the Oakland Athletics.

 

San Diego Padres vs. Oakland Athletics

Tuesday, August 3, 2021 – 9:40 p.m. EDT at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum 

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Giants vs. Dodgers: King Josiah?

 

Josiah Gray #83 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches.  Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Josiah Gray #83 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Josiah Gray may or may not debut for the L.A. Dodgers this Tuesday when they host the San Francisco Giants. Does that alter our MLB picks?

 

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tuesday, July 20, 2021 – 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium

 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a hole in their starting rotation. Both Clayton Kershaw (strained forearm) and Trevor Bauer (administrative leave) are unavailable this week; David Price has been “promoted” from the bullpen into the No. 4 spot, but that leaves L.A. uncertain at press time who will start Tuesday’s game against their National League West rivals, the San Francisco Giants. DraftKings aren’t waiting around to find out who gets the nod. They’ve opened the Dodgers as –145 home favorites on their MLB odds board, which presents us with an interesting opportunity: Do we take L.A. at these odds, with the distinct possibility that they’ll hand the ball to Josiah Gray, their top pitching prospect in the minors? Or do we wait for confirmation on their starter, and deal with whatever odds come up at that point?

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Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Preview and Best Bet

Starting pitcher Martin Perez #54 of the Boston Red Sox. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

Starting pitcher Martin Perez #54 of the Boston Red Sox. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

 

The Red Sox and Yankees will renew acquaintances and get back in the saddle after a COVID postponement on Thursday, leading us to this Friday night showdown. Let’s analyze this AL East rivalry and keep cashing our MLB picks!

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Friday, July 16, 2021 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

The Red Sox have a tenuous grasp on the division lead with the Tampa Bay Rays, just 1 ½ games in their rearview mirror, while the Yankees and Blue Jays are both eight games back. But Boston began staggering at the end of the first half of the season, losing four of their last five against pedestrian opponents (Angels and Phillies).

Meanwhile, the Yankees have struggled through a disappointing season and the cheers we thought we would hear emanating from Yankee Stadium have turned to jeers. The Bombers find themselves with a 46-43 mark and are close to falling out of the AL East race.

However, hope springs eternal in the second half, for all but those that are hopelessly out of the playoff hunt, and the Yankees are no different. Big things are expected of the Pinstripers in the remaining months and if their winning five of seven before the break is any indication then they could prove worthy of the optimism in the Bronx.

 

COVID Concerns

Last night’s game was postponed due to medical protocols and Aaron Judge is a key figure in all of this. He is one of three everyday New York players who are in COVID protocol, with the other two being Gio Urshela and Kyle Higashioka, while pitchers Nester Cortes Jr., Wandy Peralta, and Jonathan Loaisiga have confirmed cases.

The issue with Judge is that he was recently in Denver with all the other All-Stars shaking hands and high-fiving, possibly infecting everyone he came in contact with, including five fellow All-Stars from Boston who are now in similar protocols.

“Disappointing and frustrating,” is how Yankees’ manager Aaron Boone put it. “Nobody wants to be talking about this. We want to go back to normal. But some things are out of our control. We have to do the best we can with the circumstances and the hands we are dealt.”

 

Wanna Make a Bet?

Assuming Friday’s game goes off unhitched, the Red Sox will be sending Martin Perez (7-5, 4.04 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) to the bump who will hope to be sharper than he was in his last outing when he allowed three runs on six hits over three-plus innings in an 11-2 loss to Philadelphia. Ironically, Perez posted identical numbers in his June 25th appearance against the Yankees but the outcome was vastly different as the Sox notched a 5-3 victory in that one.

Jordan Montgomery (3-4, 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) will be the pitcher of record for New York this evening. He last saw action on July 8th and pitched fairly well but a pair of dingers contributed to all three runs against him, where he worked six-plus innings, allowing three earned runs on four hits in what resulted in a 4-0 loss to the Mariners.

Montgomery has faced the Red Sox just once this season, back on June 26th in which he dropped a 4-2 decision while working six innings and allowing eight hits on three runs, and inducing a season-high 13 ground balls.

Boston has dominated the Yankees this season, winning all six previous meetings with the most recent being a 9-2 thrashing at Fenway on June 27th. We should also consider the COVID effect on the Yankees which will undoubtedly thin their lineup and allow the Red Sox an opportunity to pounce. Lastly, the MLB odds are giving us a reason to back Boston, making them a slight underdog in this one at all of the best online sportsbooks.

  • If we take a look at a few betting trends, they all favor the Red Sox in this one:
  • Red Sox are 4-0 in Perez’s last 4 starts as a road underdog.
  • Red Sox are 4-0 in Perez’s last 4 Friday starts.
  • Red Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 Friday games.
  • Yankees are 4-10 in their last 14 during Game 1 of a series.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 Friday games.

Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -104 at SugarHouse