Braves vs. Yankees MLB Preview

Atlanta Braves v Chicago Cubs

The Braves will take the trip to Yankee Stadium and take on a struggling Yankees team that is 5-10 on the season. Can the Braves capitalize in this series.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium

Probable Pitchers:

Braves: Charlie Morton (1-1, 4.76 ERA)

Yankees: Jameson Taillon (0-1, 7.56 ERA)

The Braves and Yankees will start a three-game series. When we all looked at the schedule and saw this series, nobody predicted that both teams would be below .500 when this series started. But here we are.

The Yankees are 5-10 on the season and will start a free agent signee in Jamesson Taillon. He’s started two games this season after not pitching at all last year and has a high strikeout rate, low walk rate but has allowed three home runs in 8.1 innings.

In those 8.1 innings, he allowed 11 hits and seven runs but walked just one. The Yankees have lost both starts he’s pitched in against the Orioles and the Blue Jays.

This season, the Braves have been led by Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman at the top of the order. Outside of these two, the Braves have been inconsistent hitting the ball and have six batters striking out 22.9 percent of the time or higher against righties this season.

Of course, Acuna and Freeman are not part of those six batters as they’ve limited strikeout and increased walks. They’re just not being helped by batters like Marcell Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud.

On the flip side. Charlie Morton will take the hill for the Braves. Morton has allowed nine runs in 17 innings off 17 hits and five walks. He has struck out 21 and has induced 21 grounders to 22 fly balls on the season but the runs are a problem.

In his last outing, Morton allowed the Marlins to score five runs off seven hits in seven innings. He still struck out nine but the damage was already done in that game and the Braves lost in extras.

Morton, through 12 starts dating back to last year, has struck out 10.31 batters per nine innings and has limited walks and home runs. But his batting average of balls in play is stuck at .362, even with allowing under 30 percent of hard contact. You would think that has to regress to some degree.

The Yankees lineup has also struggled plenty this season but are getting on base thanks to many walks. The entire team walked 7.7 percent of the time or higher in that projected lineup. But they also strike out at a high rate with only Odor striking out less than 17 percent of the time against righties.

The Yankees lineup will figure it out eventually but we’re not betting on eventually. We’re betting on the present and right now the Yankees aren’t getting the job done.

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Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB Preview

Justin Turner #10 and Kenley Jansen #74 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrate.Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Justin Turner #10 and Kenley Jansen #74 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrate.Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Extra-thick chalk on Thursday’s baseball betting card awaits anyone looking to play the streaking Los Angeles Dodgers in their series finale against the sinking Colorado Rockies.

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

 at Dodger Stadium

 To no one’s surprise, Los Angeles and Colorado are on opposite ends of the NL West standings, just as the MLB futures odds suggested before the season began. The Dodgers and Rockies also head into their series finale with opposite streaks, LA surging with five consecutive wins while Colorado is in the throes of a 5-game skid. The Dodgers extended both of those streaks by taking the first two games and outscoring the Rockies 11-2 in the process.

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Reds vs. Giants MLB Preview

Joey Votto #19 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates.  Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images/AFP

Joey Votto #19 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates. Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images/AFP

The Reds offense has been red hot to start the year but after scoring just three runs last night, what can we expect from Cincinnati’s offense against the Giants tonight?

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants

Tuesday, April 13, 2020 – 9:45pm EST at Oracle Park

Probable Pitchers

● Reds: Luis Castillo (1-1, 6.97 ERA)

● Giants: Kevin Gausman (0-0, 1.32 ERA)

The Giants offense went missing yesterday even after going up against a lefty in Wade Miley that had struggled against right-handed batters. The Giants offense has not been good lately and now they’ll have another major test going up against Luis Castillo of the Reds.

Luis Castillo started the season allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in 3.1 innings pitched off eight hits and two walks against the Cardinals. In that first start, he didn’t get a single strikeout but was still able to get 11 ground balls to seven fly outs.

After that miserable showing against the Cardinals, Castillo went seven strong against the Pirates, allowing no runs on four hits with five strikeouts and one walk. Castillo produces nearly 58 percent of ground balls and gets 10.53 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s walked just over three batters per nine innings and rarely allows home runs at .67 per nine innings.

Castillo will have his poor moments but he’s a fantastic pitcher who should have success against this Giants lineup that can’t seem to figure out hitting early into the season. There’s not a single Giants batter that currently has a weighted OBA of above .350. While the Giants have been able to work out walks, they’ve struggled getting hits consistently which should be a problem against Castillo.

One thing of note is that the Giants have been able to limit ground balls hit against righties but they haven’t gone up against anyone close to Castillo in terms of ground ball rate. On the other hand, Kevin Gausman will take the hill for the Giants. He didn’t get nearly as much love as he should have in 2020. He had a high strikeout rate and left nearly 75 percent of runners on base. On top of that, he’s been able to limit walks to 2.33 per nine innings and home runs under one per nine innings.

Gausman has gone over six innings in both starts this season and allowed just one run in both starts as well. Strikeouts aren’t as high as they were last year but hits are low and walks are low, giving him two quality starts to begin the season. However, he’ll go up against a Reds offense that has looked incredible against righties this season.

The Reds lineup has seven batters that have a wOBA of .354 or higher and five batters with a wOBA of .380 or higher. Walks are low and strikeouts are also low for this Reds team that has four lefties and a balanced offense that can really work Gausman. Gausman strikes out lefties nearly as much as he does righties. It’ll be up to the lefties to get on base and create havoc to score runs.

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Yankees vs. Rays MLB Preview

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo #25 of the Tampa Bay Rays. Adam Glanzman/Getty Images/AFP

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo #25 of the Tampa Bay Rays. Adam Glanzman/Getty Images/AFP

 

The reigning, defending American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays open up their home schedule against division rival, New York Yankees on Friday afternoon in St. Petersburg.

 

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Friday, April 09, 2021 – 03:10 PM EDT at Tropicana Field

Can The Rays Stop The Bleeding?

The Tampa Bay Rays are ice cold at the moment in this young season. They have lost four in a row to the Red Sox and Marlins. What is most concerning is that in those four losses they have surrendered…wait for it…thirty eight runs. That is a staggering failure of pitching for a team that usually prides itself on being able to cobble together games by any means necessary. Now they have to open their 2021 home schedule against the potent lineup of the New York Yankees.

The Rays will send veteran lefty Rich Hill to the mound in this one on Friday afternoon. Now, I will grant you that Rich Hill is not the kind of pitcher that has shut down stuff, nor does he throw particularly hard, especially at this point in his career. However, sometimes guys with that slow, accurate stuff can be off putting for a power lineup like the Yankees. Hill may be just the kind of wily veteran to pull the Rays out of their slump.

 

 Can The Yankees Capitalize on Tampa’s Slow Start?

While the Rays are off to a painfully slow start, the Yankees haven’t exactly set the world on fire either. The Yankees are 3-3 on the year and coming off a loss to the Orioles. Their bats have done the job more often than not, but they are still susceptible to a bad day on the mound. Today they will send former American League Cy Young winner, Corey Kiuber to the mound. Kiuber looked good in his debut in pinstripes, but it is still a fair question to wonder how much he has left in the tank. He’s been through quite a bit over the last few years.

 

The Yankees bats will have to deal with Rich Hill who on paper doesn’t seem like the toughest matchups, but sometimes dealing with a veteran who knows his way around a lineup and is crafty and accurate, can be a problem. Additionally the Rays manager Kevin Cash, won’t let Hill get in a heap of trouble. He deploys his bullpen as well as any manager in the big leagues.

 

 

 

Betting Analysis:

 

The Rays are as cold as ice right now and that provides some value. Additionally the names on the pitching matchup provide value as well. Many bettors will see Kluber vs. Hill and immediately side with Corey Kluber. The dude has been through a lot lately and may not necessarily be the guy he was a few years ago. Rich Hill is someone who is more than capable and could throw this Yankees lineup a bit off kilter.

 

The Rays are too good of a team to stay down for long. They get to finally return home and play in front of their fans for the first time in a long time. They’re hanging an American League Championship banner. They have a guy on the mound who I think could be a problem for the Yankees and are facing a pitcher that could be susceptible to their own potent lineup. I think the situation Tampa Bay has been in provides value here today.

 

MLB Pick: Rays ML (+120) at BetMGM

 

Jurickson Profar #10 of the San Diego Padres pumps his fist as he scores during the second inning.  Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

Jurickson Profar #10 of the San Diego Padres pumps his fist as he scores during the second inning. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

With Fernando Tatis injured and out, do the Padres have enough offense against the Giants to win behind Darvish?

 

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

Tuesday, April 06, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Petco Park

Probable Pitchers:

● Giants: Aaron Sanchez (2020 Stats: N/A)

● Padres: Yu Darvish 0-0, 7.71 ERA

Yu Darvish didn’t have the best debut for the Padres in his first outing after going 4.2 innings and allowing four runs off eight hits. It’s going to be a bit different pitching in San Diego compared to the Windy City so we’ll likely see more home runs off of Darvish this season. He still struck out six against the Diamondbacks and the Padres ended up winning that game, 8-7.

If you combine this year and last year, Darvish has gone 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA along with a 2.51 FIP. That’s ace material. He’s able to get a high amount of strikeouts, limit walks and is really good under pressure, leaving over 83 percent of runners on base. Last year, Darvish had a .45 ERA on the road, away from Chicago, so my theory might be off a bit but being in hotter weather can’t help when it comes to allowing home runs.

Both lefties and righties hit .211 against Darvish last season but the Cubs bats would ultimately let down Darvish at times. The Padres bats should be better although they struggled last night against the Giants. Fernando Tatis injured himself swinging too hard and now the Padres lineup looks a little worse than usual.

Sanchez didn’t pitch in 2020 but did pitch in 2019 where he finished the season allowing five home runs and nine runs in his last 7.2 innings with the Astros. In 2019, both lefties and righties hit over .275 against and he allowed 21 home runs in 521 at bats going 5-14 on the season after starting 27 games.

Righties had an on base percentage of .383 against Sanchez as walks quickly became a problem. More slugging came from lefties against Sanchez. So either way you look at it, the Padres should find ways on the base whether it’s a walk or a base hit.

The Giants lineup has some potential against righties. Tommy LaStella, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Alex Dickerson and Donovan Solano all have weighted OBA of above .340 against righties. But Darvish isn’t just an ordinary righty and pounds the strike zone and makes batters earn everything.

The Padres should have scored a lot more last night with the middle of their lineup but struggled against DeSclafani. Now without Tatis, things can get interesting in a hurry for this team.

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