Opening line and total: Patriots minus 13 ½ (55 ½)

LAS VEGAS – Those betting early agree with Burress. The line has been bet from an opening of New England, minus 13 ½, down to 12. The total has dropped from 55 ½ to 54, though that could rise closer to kickoff.

This is just the sixth Super Bowl in the last 20 years with an ‘over/under’ of 50 points or more. The ‘under’ is 3-2 in those five matchups.

The ‘under’ is 13-5-1 in New England’s last 19 playoff games. The ‘over,’ though, is 11-5-1 in Patriots’ matchups this season. The ‘under’ is 10-9 in New York’s contests.

Mike Carey, slated to be the head referee, had the sixth-highest scoring average (45 points) in games he officiated

The Giants have the better pointspread mark, covering in 13 of their 19 matchups. New England is 10-8 against the spread, but went just 1-7 ATS during its past eight games. The Giants have captured an NFL-record 10 consecutive road games.

Does all this mean the Giants have a legitimate shot to pull the upset?

They certainly came close on Dec. 29 when they hosted the Patriots as 13-point home underdogs. The Giants relinquished a 12-point second-half lead before falling, 38-35. Eli Manning threw four touchdown passes, capping scoring drives of 74, 85, 60 and 68 yards. He finished with a higher passer rating than Tom Brady.

Brady wasn’t too shabby either, completing 32-of-42 for 356 yards. Randy Moss and Wes Welker each reached 100 receiving yards.

Though the Giants lead the NFL is sacks, they got to Brady just once despite New England missing starting offensive linemen Stephen Neal and Nick Kaczur.

The Patriots will be playing under better weather conditions than they encountered during much of the second half of the season. The Pats won by three points at home against Philadelphia on Nov. 25 as 24-point favorites and won by three the following week at Baltimore as 24-point favorites.

New England also won by just 10 at home in bad weather conditions on Dec. 16 as 21-point home favorites against the New York Jets, 20-10. The Patriots failed to cover in their playoff games, beating Jacksonville by 11 points as 13-point home favorites and dispatching San Diego by nine points while laying 13 points at Foxboro.

The Patriots played conservative in their two playoff victories, displaying two and three tight end sets. Expect New England to go more to its standard four and five receiver sets versus New York’s banged-up secondary.

Brady and Moss each set NFL touchdown records at their respective positions. The Patriots averaged 36.8 points per game on their way to breaking the single-season scoring record. They also led the NFL in offense, averaging 411 yards per contest. Brady led the NFL in passing yards, averaging 295.7 yards per game.

The Giants were strong against the run during upset road playoff victories against Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay.

New York will not only have its hands full with Brady and Moss, but also with Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk. Both players came up big in the postseason. Maroney has rushed for 244 yards in the two playoff games, while averaging 5.2 yards per rush attempt. Faulk has been effective as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, hauling in 13 passes during the victories against the Jaguars and Chargers.

The Giants also have two solid backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw has been a surprise in the playoffs, rushing for 163 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and catching three passes for 24 yards.

Not turning the ball over during the playoffs has been a key for the Giants. If that continues, and the 265-pound Jacobs can wear down the aging Patriots defenders, the Giants very well could make this a close game.

Belichick, a master defensive game-planner, has had two weeks to prepare. The Giants probably aren’t going to see the same plays they saw from the Patriots in their earlier meeting.

New England’s defense finished fourth in yardage (allowing 288.3 yards per game) and No. 4 in scoring, yielding 17.1 points per game.

The two teams shared six common opponents in the Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Eagles, Redskins and Cowboys. The Patriots were 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS versus this competition, while the Giants were 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.

February 3, 2008