Over/under win totals
By BARRY DANIELS
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How many more wins will Chicago accumulate with the addition of free-agent center Ben Wallace? How many more losses will Detroit suffer by replacing Wallace with Nazr Mohammad?
A dominating big man can surely be the ‘center’ of attention when trying to bet the NBA future book, and this season is not an exception.
Wallace, the prize catch during the offseason free-agent frenzy, influenced the over/under win total for both his new and old team. His new Chicago teammates, winners of 41 games last season, have now been assigned an over/under win total of 47 ½.
Wallace’s old mates from Detroit captured 64 games last season, but were only dispensed a win total of 52 ½ this time around.
“Wallace wasn’t the only barometer for the raising of Chicago’s number and the lowering of Detroit’s digits,” reports LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba. “Chicago also picked up P.J. Brown. The addition of these two defensive-minded players, along with another year of experience from the guard tandem of Kirk Heinrich and Ben Gordon, should allow the Bulls to improve by at least six games from last year.”
Detroit won 64 games during the 2005-06 regular campaign, but most of those victories occurred prior to the All-Star break. The free agent acquisitions of Mohammad from the San Antonio Spurs and Flip Murray from Cleveland won’t generate much fear in the opposition’s offensive attack. As a result, the Pistons have been assigned an over/under win total of 52 ½.
“The team is getting older, and there are still many doubts about Flip Saunders’ ability to lead a team deep in the playoffs,” said Seba. “Saunders has said the Pistons will play more zone defense, and they will have to without Wallace swatting away shots in the lane.”
The Houston Rockets, winners of 34 contests last year, are one team expected to make some positive strides this season. An over/under win total of 45 ½ confirms that theory.
“Ming and Tracy McGrady just couldn’t get on the floor at the same time last season,” said Seba. “Though Ming still isn’t 100 percent because of a toe injury, the addition of Shane Battier from Memphis and the drafting of Rudy Gay should make this team much improved.”
The Memphis Grizzlies garnered 49 wins last season, but were allocated an over/under of just 40 ½ for the current campaign.
“This team has never won a playoff game,” reminded Seba. “It’s possible that the Grizzlies peaked last year and will now be going in a downward direction. Losing Battier, their best defensive player, certainly won’t help. In addition, star forward Pau Gasol (20.4 PPG) is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season with an injury."
The San Antonio Spurs could go either way. They could put it all together and make one last push for a championship, or they could start fading. It looks like LVSC is a proponent for the later theory, as it has set San Antonio’s over/under number at 55 ½ after the club won 63 games last year.
A coaching change usually doesn’t translate into a significant difference in a team’s wins and losses. However, LVSC has made an exception with the New York Knicks.
“Though the Knicks won just 23 games last season, the coaching change from Larry Brown to Isiah Thomas should allow this collection of players to play a little looser,” said Seba. “New York’s talent alone should be enough for it to win close to 33 games.”
The chart below lists the 2005/06 final number of wins for each team on the right, and this year’s LVSC assigned over/under win totals on the left.
TEAM 2006/07 LAST YEAR
Spurs 55 ½ 63
Heat 52 ½ 52
Mavs 56 ½ 60
Pacers 45 ½ 41
Pistons 52 ½ 64
Rockets 45 ½ 34
Nuggets 45 ½ 44
Kings 45 ½ 44
Cavaliers 50 ½ 50
Nets 49 ½ 49
T’Wolves 38 ½ 33
Sonics 35 ½ 35
Bulls 47 ½ 41
Suns 56 ½ 54
Lakers 46 ½ 45
Warriors 36 ½ 34
Grizzlies 40 ½ 49
76ers 37 ½ 38
Knicks 33 ½ 23
Wizards 41 ½ 42
Celtics 37 ½ 33
Clippers 46 ½ 47
Bucks 39 ½ 40
Jazz 43 ½ 41
Magic 40 ½ 36
Blazers 24 ½ 21
Raptors 30 ½ 27
Hawks 29 ½ 26
Bobcats 34 ½ 26
Hornets 38 ½ 38
October 12, 2006
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