LAS VEGAS - Though this is only Week 8, the Indianapolis Colts face a virtual must win at Tennessee on Monday if they have any realistic hopes of winning a sixth consecutive AFC South title.

A loss would drop the Colts (3-3) four games behind the Titans (6-0) with nine to play, and it would be hard to imagine them making up that kind of deficit.

Indianapolis probably would be reduced to battling for a wild card spot, which, as the New York Giants proved last season, doesn't rule out a Super Bowl run.

Still, the Colts have been plagued by inconsistent play - as their .500 record suggests - and also mental mistakes.

In a 31-3 win over Baltimore two weeks ago, Indianapolis committed 11 penalties for 84 yards. In last week's 34-14 loss in Green Bay, they were penalized 12 times for 110 yards and allowed two interception returns for touchdowns in the second half.

The Colts failed to cover as one-point road favorites last week against the Packers, lowering their pointspread record to 3-3. The combined 48 points slipped ‘over’ the 46 ½-point closing total, leaving the ‘over/under’ also at 3-3.

Against the Packers, the Colts allowed 31 straight points after taking a 7-3 lead. They are at .500 this late in a season for the first time since 2002, Tony Dungy's first year with the team.

With strong safety Bob Sanders expected to miss this game, the Colts are without a key man in their run defense that allows 153.5 rushing yards per game.

The Colts also didn't expect the Titans to be 6-0, but Kerry Collins has not lost since replacing Vince Young in Week 2.

However, the combined record of Tennessee's first six opponents is 12-26.

The Titans were nearly flawless last week, rushing for a franchise-record 332 yards during a 34-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Tennessee easily covered as a nine-point road favorite, lifting the club’s pointspread mark to a perfect 6-0. The combined 44 points leaped ‘over’ the 35-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash in three of the team’s last four outings.

Rookie Chris Johnson and LenDale White combined for 317 yards, marking the first time the Titans had two running backs rush for 100 yards in the same game since 1977.

Defensively, the Titans lead the AFC with 10 interceptions.

The Titans were the last team other than Indianapolis to win the AFC South, accomplishing the feat in 2002 when they reached the AFC championship game.

Tennessee is outscoring the opposition through six games by an average of 24.8 to 11.0, while Indianapolis is getting outscored by a narrow margin of 21.8 to 21.3.

TRENDS: The Colts are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against AFC South foes. The Titans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 contests versus AFC South clubs. The ‘under’ is 6-0 in the last six head-to-head meetings between the Colts and Titans, with the Titans covering the spread in the last four series meetings.

October 27, 2008