Betting the College Football Bowl Games
 
By DAVID SCOTT
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Oddsmakers have now issued pointspreads for the dozens of college football bowl games that dot the landscape. Meanwhile, USA Today computer guru Jeff Sagarin has posted his pre-bowl numbers, as well.

Being one who would have taken the heavy underdog Charles Darrow in the Scopes-Monkey Trial, I'm going to opt for the scientific approach and bet on teams that Sagarin says are better than Vegas oddsmakers believe they are. Since Sagarin contends that his numbers evolve from empirical data, and the Las Vegas line is, after all, created, let's call this a battle of evolution versus creationism.

Believing that research holds the answer to tomorrow's problems (I think the slogan was lifted from some pharmaceutical company), the suits at The Rx graciously have given me $1,000 in seed money to wager on the bowl games. (Not really, but this is going to be a lot more fun if you play along).

As always, a word of caution is in order. Not only are journalists notoriously poor prognosticators but judging by the shabby manner of dress I've observed in press boxes across the country, we're even worse bettors.

Pointspreads are based on the opening line at the Stardust in Las Vegas. Your own mileage may vary. Void in Nebraska.

FORT WORTH BOWL (Dec. 23)

According to Sagarin's numbers, Kansas is 7.98 points better than Houston. But you only have to lay 1 ½ points. I can do the math. I'll bet $110 on Kansas at minus 1 1/2.

INSIGHT BOWL (Dec. 27)

It's going to take some courage to back Rutgers against a Pac-10 team, but Sagarin's data suggests I do just that. Arizona State, a 13-point favorite, has a rating of 80.53 while Rutgers checks in with a rating of 72.50, a difference of 8.03. I can't pass up the five-point edge. Let's risk $110 on Rutgers at plus 13.

MPC COMPUTER BOWL (Dec. 28)

Boston College has a Sagarin rating of 83.50, while Boise State's rating is 74.51. Even allowing Boise State three points for the home field advantage, that means the line should be Boston College minus six. Instead, Boston College is plus three. How do you ignore a nine-point swing in the pointspread? You don't. I'll wager $110 on Boston College at plus three.

HOLIDAY BOWL (Dec. 29)

The play is on the favorite this time, Oregon, laying one-and-a-half points against Oklahoma. With a rating of 87.62 to Oklahoma's 81.68, The Ducks should be a six-point favorite. I'll wager the usual $110 on Oregon at minus one-and-a-half.

LIBERTY BOWL (Dec. 31)

According to Sagarin, Tulsa (73.36) is less than three points inferior to Fresno State (76.09). In this case, it's difficult to resist the Golden Hurricane at plus 8 ½. Let's drop another $110 on Tulsa at that price.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL (Dec. 31)

South Florida (76.26) and NC State (76.19) have almost identical Sagarin ratings so, according to the scientist, the game should be pick 'em. Instead, you get South Florida plus 6 1/2. I'll take that for $110.

SUGAR BOWL (Jan. 2)

At 86.01, West Virginia actually is a point better than Georgia (85.01) but the Bulldogs opened as an 8 ½-point favorite. Granted the fact that the game is being played in Atlanta's Georgia Dome is worth something, but not enough to dissuade me from betting $110 on West Virginia at plus 8 1/2.

CAPTAL ONE BOWL (Jan. 2)

What's in your wallet? Auburn (84.71) isn't even a point better than Wisconsin (83.93) but the Tigers opened as a 9 1/2-point favorite. Let's go with a $110 bet on the Badgers at plus 9 1/2.

ROSE BOWL (Jan. 4)

Sagarin has Texas (101.98) slightly ahead of USC (101.15) but the Longhorns opened as six-point underdogs. I believe USC will crush Texas but what is belief in the face of science? I'll bet $110 on Texas at plus six.

That's it, nine bets at $110 each for $990 wagered of the $1,000 given to me by the Rx. I'm pocketing the remaining sawbuck.

By the way, if these wagers fail, don't blame me. Blame Sagarin.

 
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