Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma Sooners NCAAF Betting Preview

Screen Shot 2016-11-11 at 7.48.48 AMBaylor Bears have lost their last two games and now face the 11th ranked Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. The 6-2 Bears come into this contest having a home loss to TCU, 62-22. The 7-2 Sooners have won their last six games including a 34-24 win at Iowa State last week. The Sooners won last year 44-34.

Vegas odds have the Sooners listed as 16 point favorites, while the total has been set at 81. The game has a start time of 12:00 pm EST and will be televised on ABC or ESPN2.

Breaking Down The Baylor Bears

The Baylor Bears were rolling right along with a 6-0 record and clearly in the conversation for a berth in the NCAA Playoffs, but then the bottom fell out and they have since lost their last two games. The first loss was a 35-34 defeat at the hands of the Texas on the road and then last week they fell by a score of 62-22 at home to TCU. The Bears went from being ranked 9th in the nation to out of the top 25 because of those two losses. The Bears have been led again by their offense which comes in ranked 5th in the nation in total yards, 37th in passing, 6th in rushing and 15th in scoring, putting up 39.8 ppg. Seth Russell has had a very good season in leading this offense as he has thrown for 1978 yards and 19 TDs, while also rushing for 436 yards and 8 more TDs. He is one of the best QBs in the league and will be taking on a rather weak Oklahoma defense, so he should have a good showing in this one. The problem for the Bears in this game comes on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears have allowed 97 points and 1236 yards in their last two games combined and now must face the hottest offense in the league. That could make this game very ugly for the Bears.

Breaking Down The Oklahoma Sooners

The Oklahoma Sooners got off to a slow 1-2 start and were quickly out of the National Title, but they have since rebounded to win their last 6 games in a row and they have outscored their foes by 17.5 ppg over that stretch. Most of that is due to a 56-3 win over Kansas and four of their other 6 wins over that stretch was by 10 points or less. Does that give Baylor a chance to keep this one close? Maybe, but it won’t be easy as their defense that has been torched over their last two weeks will now take on an Oklahoma offense that is on fire as they have scored 48.5 ppg over their last 6 games. Baker Mayfield has had a fine season so far as he has thrown for 2912 yards with 31 TDs and just 6 INTs to lead a sooners offense that comes in ranked 3rd in the nation in total yards, 7th in passing, 32nd in rushing and 7th in scoring, putting up 44.1 ppg. If they Bears don’t figure things out on defense, then they will be in for a long day. Of course, the Bears offense does have a chance to at least keep the game close as their high-powered offense will take aim at a rather weak Oklahoma defense that comes in ranked 80th in yards allowed, 121st vs the pass, 25th vs the run and 93rd in points allowed, giving up 31.6 ppg. Of you take out the game vs Kansas, then we note that they allowed 37.2 ppg in their other five games of the win streak.

Trends: The Bears have gone 18-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game, but just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a double-digit loss at home and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Over is 6-1 in their last 7 games following a straight up loss, while the Under is 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Sooners have gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Over is 19-7 in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.

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