Free NBA Pick: Knicks at Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are getting too many points against a Knicks team that is playing on back to back nights and coming off a loss against Chicago. New York was on the road against the Bulls and they are on the road against when they face Cleveland tonight. New York’s defense has not been great on the road allowing 97.4 points per game while the offense averages only 97.2 per game offensively.

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. They face a Knicks team that is trending in the wrong direction. In the heart of their 13 game win streak the Knicks were averaging over 50% shooting. They have gone over 50% only one time in their last four games coming into this matchup against the Cavaliers.

Play on Cleveland +4.5

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Free NBA Pick: Warriors at Thunder

There are few teams in the league that can keep pace with Oklahoma City’s 105.8 points per game and Golden State is not one of them. You should always play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Oklahoma City when they are an excellent offensive team scoring 102 points per game or more and playing against a poor defensive team holding opponents to 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 50-19 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Defensively the Warriors have not played well this season giving up 99.9 points per game. In fact, the Oklahoma City defense is holding opponents to 97.7 points per game on the road and the offense is outscoring the Warriors by a full 5 points per game. Oklahoma City has a road record that is just two games back of Golden State’s record at home. The Thunder are the better team in this matchup and it will show today.

Play on Oklahoma City

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Free NBA Pick: Cavaliers at Pacers

The Pacers are coming off a tough loss to Washington and will face a Cleveland team that has been plagued by injuries. This matchup falls into a system to play against a team like Cleveland when they are playing for double revenge of two straight losses against an opponent when that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is has a long standing history of success with a 429-313 (58%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

This game falls into another system to play on a favorite that is a good team like Indiana when they are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game on the season and coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This system is 90-54 (63%) ATS over the last five seasons. Indiana’s defense has been solid at home holding opponents to 88.7 points per game and they offense should have no problem scoring on a Cavaliers defense that is allowing 102.5 points per game on the road. The Pacers should pick up a big win today.

Play on Indiana Pacers.

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Free NCAA Pick: Arizona vs. Ohio State

Ohio State has been on a big of a hot streak covering in 6 of their last 8 games, but Arizona has been playing well too covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread. You should always play against a team like Ohio State that has covered 6 of their last 8 games against the spread when they are a team winning 80% or more of their games playing another good team winning 60-80% of their games. This system is 128-78 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Ohio State is coming off a game where they went 9 of 18 from the 3-point line including a last second shot by Aaron Craft to get the win over Iowa State. This game also falls into a system to play on a team like Arizona when they are playing on a neutral court and have had two straight games shooting 50% or better and playing against a team that is coming off a game where they made 50% or more of their 3 point attempts. This system is 48-16 (72%) ATS.

Play on Arizona

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Free NBA Pick: Nuggets at Thunder

It is no secret that both of these teams can score a lot of points. Their reputations as high scoring teams is what makes the under the value play in this game. The total has been driven up much higher than it should be considering Oklahoma City is a quality defensive team playing on their home court.

You should always play the under in a game involving two teams shooting 47% or more when they are average ball handling teams committing 14.5-16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 30-6 (83.3%) to the under since 1996.

This game also falls into a system to play the under when a team is revenging two consecutive straight up loss as a favorite like the Thunder when they are a good team winning 60-75% of their games and they are playing against a team with a winning record. This system is 121-72 in favor of the under.

Play on Thunder/Nuggets UNDER

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