Thanks, Dog.
Recap: 2-0
Record: 10-10
From yesterday:
"The theory going in was to Fade the consensus plays, but going into week 6 my charts show that any game where the consensus has a two to one or more advantage on a side they're hitting at 67%.
That's a play ON number not AGAINST."
Both Birmingham and St Louis hit the parameters noted above, and both covered.
Content with getting back to even I stayed off the late games, saved a little juice as I would have probably made the same two plays I used in the morning, the 67% spot on St Louis and the Over.
Here are today's consensus numbers:
Mich 6, Arl 2; Ov 4, Un 2
SA 7, DC 1; Ov 3, Un 1
Both Mich and SA have a 2-1 or better advantage.
So . . .
Mich -3'
Recap: 2-0
Record: 10-10
From yesterday:
"The theory going in was to Fade the consensus plays, but going into week 6 my charts show that any game where the consensus has a two to one or more advantage on a side they're hitting at 67%.
That's a play ON number not AGAINST."
Both Birmingham and St Louis hit the parameters noted above, and both covered.
Content with getting back to even I stayed off the late games, saved a little juice as I would have probably made the same two plays I used in the morning, the 67% spot on St Louis and the Over.
Here are today's consensus numbers:
Mich 6, Arl 2; Ov 4, Un 2
SA 7, DC 1; Ov 3, Un 1
Both Mich and SA have a 2-1 or better advantage.
So . . .
Mich -3'
Recap: 0-1
Record: 10-11
Lost Sunday's play when Michigan won but couldn't cover the three-point spread, but a 2-1 weekend knocks my unit deficit in half, down one now plus juice.
No real differentials in consensus picks this week, except for the total in the Arlington game, 6 Ov, 1 Un.
My charts show that a game with a differential like this on the Ov/Un has a record of 4-2 so I'll ride the Over in that one.
On the side we have a winless team laying 6. They've lost a lot of close ones and I think they get in the win column today but -6? I don't know.
In the late game we have the biggest game of the season so far with St Louis facing Birmingham. Got to have action on this one right, but what?
Consensus has a slight edge Birmingham, 6-4.
The number is at -4' now, up from -4.
I lean Birmingham but I'll see how the morning game goes before deciding whether to pull the trigger on a recommendation for the late game.
Mem/Arl Ov 45'
Record: 10-11
Lost Sunday's play when Michigan won but couldn't cover the three-point spread, but a 2-1 weekend knocks my unit deficit in half, down one now plus juice.
No real differentials in consensus picks this week, except for the total in the Arlington game, 6 Ov, 1 Un.
My charts show that a game with a differential like this on the Ov/Un has a record of 4-2 so I'll ride the Over in that one.
On the side we have a winless team laying 6. They've lost a lot of close ones and I think they get in the win column today but -6? I don't know.
In the late game we have the biggest game of the season so far with St Louis facing Birmingham. Got to have action on this one right, but what?
Consensus has a slight edge Birmingham, 6-4.
The number is at -4' now, up from -4.
I lean Birmingham but I'll see how the morning game goes before deciding whether to pull the trigger on a recommendation for the late game.
Mem/Arl Ov 45'
Recap: 1-0
Record: 11-11
Okay, banked a unit yesterday to get back to .500, but also have to make up for 1.1 unit in juice now. Have today and three more weeks of the regular season to get into the plus side.
Here are the consensus numbers I have for today:
Mich 3, DC 7; Ov 2, Un 5
SA 7, Hou 2; Ov 0, Un 5
Totals with a differential like I have in both games today (3 or >) have a record of 5-2. BUT, what I don't know is what the breakdown of that 5-2, what was the record for Overs what was the record for Unders.
So I'm going to go check my charts and be back with that info.
Here's what I found: Unders are 2-2, which means the real value is in the Over in these spots (like yesterday with Mem/Arl) at 3-0.
No edge for Unders.
DC and SA consensus numbers show a differential of 4 or >.
My charts show teams in this spot have a record of 6-4, so a slight edge there.
We have what I call a Flip Flop Fav in Mich/DC (when I ran the sports book we had to have our parlay cards down to the print shop on Monday morning. Wednesday night was our last chance to make any changes, for example when the team that was the original favorite was now the dog. We'd have to call the print shop and tell them to flip-flop the teams, with the new favorite being put on the left side of the card and the former favorite flip flopped to the right side of the card.)
I see three other times there were FF Favs this season and all three original Favs lost, SU; 2-0-1 ATS.
Looks like following the money is the right way to go so I'm going to lay the points with DC I hope I don't get screwed by missing out on the better line -1, 1') that was available earlier.
DC -2'
Record: 11-11
Okay, banked a unit yesterday to get back to .500, but also have to make up for 1.1 unit in juice now. Have today and three more weeks of the regular season to get into the plus side.
Here are the consensus numbers I have for today:
Mich 3, DC 7; Ov 2, Un 5
SA 7, Hou 2; Ov 0, Un 5
Totals with a differential like I have in both games today (3 or >) have a record of 5-2. BUT, what I don't know is what the breakdown of that 5-2, what was the record for Overs what was the record for Unders.
So I'm going to go check my charts and be back with that info.
Here's what I found: Unders are 2-2, which means the real value is in the Over in these spots (like yesterday with Mem/Arl) at 3-0.
No edge for Unders.
DC and SA consensus numbers show a differential of 4 or >.
My charts show teams in this spot have a record of 6-4, so a slight edge there.
We have what I call a Flip Flop Fav in Mich/DC (when I ran the sports book we had to have our parlay cards down to the print shop on Monday morning. Wednesday night was our last chance to make any changes, for example when the team that was the original favorite was now the dog. We'd have to call the print shop and tell them to flip-flop the teams, with the new favorite being put on the left side of the card and the former favorite flip flopped to the right side of the card.)
I see three other times there were FF Favs this season and all three original Favs lost, SU; 2-0-1 ATS.
Looks like following the money is the right way to go so I'm going to lay the points with DC I hope I don't get screwed by missing out on the better line -1, 1') that was available earlier.
DC -2'
